相关论文: Large-scale Epidemiological modeling: Scanning for…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health…
It is preliminarily known that Aedes mosquitoes are very close to humans and their dwellings, also give rises to a broad spectrum of diseases: dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya. In this paper, we explore a multi-age-class model for mosquito…
Quantifying the attack ratio of disease is key to epidemiological inference and Public Health planning. For multi-serotype pathogens, however, different levels of serotype-specific immunity make it difficult to assess the population at…
It is possible to model vector-borne infection using the classical Ross-Macdonald model. This attempt, however fails in several respects. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, the model predicts a much greater number of cases…
As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…
Dengue fever is a disease which is transmitted and caused by Aedes Aegypti mosquitos. Dengue has become a serious health issue in all over the world especially in those countries who are situated in tropical or subtropical regions because…
We present a class of spatiotemporal models for Poisson areal data suitable for the analysis of emerging infectious diseases. These models assume Poisson observations related through a link equation to a latent random field process. This…
This study investigates the climatic index time series over the most recent 80 years, using monthly mean values from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and monthly solar activity represented by…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
Bangladesh's worsening dengue crisis, fueled by its tropical climate, poor waste management infrastructure, rapid urbanization, and dense population, has led to increasingly deadly outbreaks, posing a significant public health threat. To…
Surveillance data serving for epidemic alert systems are typically fully aggregated in space. However, epidemics may be spatially heterogeneous, undergoing distinct dynamics in distinct regions of the surveillance area. We unveil this in…
This study incorporates mathematical analysis, focusing on developing theories and conducting numerical simulations of Influenza virus transmission using real-world data. The terms in the equations introduce parameters which are determined…
Malaria is one of the most common mosquito-borne diseases widespread in tropical and subtropical regions, causing thousands of deaths every year in the world. In a previous paper, we formulated an age-structured model containing three…
Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne arbovirus with the potential to establish sustained transmission in subtropical regions like Florida, where climatic and ecological conditions support vector proliferation. In this study, we develop a…
Aedes aegypti is a known vector of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika and the goal of this study is to propose the first mathematical model to describe the dynamic transmission of these three diseases. We present two preliminary models that…
Dengue represents a serious public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. The number of dengue cases and its geographical expansion has increased in recent decades, driven mostly after by social and environmental…
Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…
It is estimated that around 80\% of the world's population live in areas susceptible to at-least one major vector borne disease, and approximately 20% of global communicable diseases are spread by mosquitoes. Furthermore, the outbreaks of…
In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The model is based on the fitting of a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of…