相关论文: GPT Deciphering Fedspeak: Quantifying Dissent Amon…

The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…

In this paper, we demonstrate that non-generative, small-sized models such as FinBERT and FinDRoBERTa, when fine-tuned, can outperform GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models in zero-shot learning settings in sentiment analysis for financial news. These…

When a language model sees a document contradicting its training knowledge, it must choose: follow the document or trust itself. Prior work proved this choice depends on how well-known the fact is. We ask: does the model's chain-of-thought…

The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the…

The evolution of the probability distributions of Japan and US major market indices, NIKKEI 225 and NASDAQ composite index, and $JPY/DEM$ and $DEM/USD$ currency exchange rates is described by means of the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE). In…

In the setting where a group of agents is asked a single subjective multi-choice question (e.g. which one do you prefer? cat or dog?), we are interested in evaluating the quality of the collected feedback. However, the collected statistics…

Minimum market transparency requirements impose Hedge Fund (HF) managers to use the statement declared strategy in practice. However each declared strategy may actually origin a multiplicity of implemented management decisions. Is then the…

In the present paper a model of a market consisting of real and financial interacting sectors is studied. Agents populating the stock market are assumed to be not able to observe the true underlying fundamental, and their beliefs are biased…

In rank aggregation, members of a population rank issues to decide which are collectively preferred. We focus instead on identifying divisive issues that express disagreements among the preferences of individuals. We analyse the properties…

This paper quantifies the international spillovers of US interest rates by explicitly controlling for the "Fed Information Effect". I use multiple identification strategies that identify two components of monetary policy surprises around…

We present WeaverBird, an intelligent dialogue system designed specifically for the finance domain. Our system harnesses a large language model of GPT architecture that has been tuned using extensive corpora of finance-related text. As a…

Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political…

In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that…

Affective polarization, the emotional divide between ideological groups marked by in-group love and out-group hate, has intensified in the United States, driving contentious issues like masking and lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic.…

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the…

Citing opinions is a powerful yet understudied strategy in argumentation. For example, an environmental activist might say, "Leading scientists agree that global warming is a serious concern," framing a clause which affirms their own stance…

The impact of non-deterministic outputs from Large Language Models (LLMs) is not well examined for financial text understanding tasks. Through a compelling case study on investing in the US equity market via news sentiment analysis, we…

User-configured chatbots built on top of large language models are increasingly available through centralized marketplaces such as OpenAI's GPT Store. While these platforms enforce usage policies intended to prevent harmful or inappropriate…

This paper studies the content of central bank speech communication from 1997 through 2020 and asks the following questions: (i) What global topics do central banks talk about? (ii) How do these topics evolve over time? I turn to natural…

Following the financial crisis of the late 2000s, policy makers have shown considerable interest in monitoring financial stability. Several central banks now publish indices of financial stress, which are essentially based upon market…