相关论文: GPT Deciphering Fedspeak: Quantifying Dissent Amon…
Large Language Models like GPT-4 adjust their responses not only based on the question asked, but also on how it is emotionally phrased. We systematically vary the emotional tone of 156 prompts - spanning controversial and everyday topics -…
This paper proposes a public daily-frequency benchmark for post-GFC government-bond CIP deviations. Although CIP deviations are observed daily, the literature lacks a canonical benchmark for daily regressions comparable to standard factor…
We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the…
The initial purpose of the study is to search whether the market exhibits herd behaviour or not by examining the crypto-asset market in the context of behavioural finance. And the second purpose of the study is to measure whether the…
When fitting a particular Economic model on a sample of data, the model may turn out to be heavily misspecified for some observations. This can happen because of unmodelled idiosyncratic events, such as an abrupt but short-lived change in…
Public finances are one of the fundamental mechanisms of economic governance that refer to the financial activities and decisions made by government entities to fund public services, projects, and operations through assets. In today's…
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I…
Behavioral finance has become an increasingly important subfield of finance. However the main parts of behavioral finance, prospect theory included, understand financial markets through individual investment behavior. Behavioral finance…
Inconsistent political statements represent a form of misinformation. They erode public trust and pose challenges to accountability, when left unnoticed. Detecting inconsistencies automatically could support journalists in asking…
The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…
Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…
ChatGPT is notorious for its intransparent behavior. This paper tries to shed light on this, providing an in-depth analysis of the dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Different psychological tests and…
The efficient market hypothesis has been considered one of the most controversial arguments in finance, with the academia divided between who claims the impossibility of beating the market and who believes that it is possible to gain over…
Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, yet little is known about their susceptibility to social influence. We conducted three preregistered conformity experiments with…
When large language models (LLMs) are consulted as forecasting tools, the independence of individual errors -- the foundation of collective intelligence -- may collapse. We test three conditions necessary for this "epistemic monoculture" to…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM…
Democracies employ elections at various scales to select officials at the corresponding levels of administration. The geographical distribution of political opinion, the policy issues delegated to each level, and the multilevel interactions…
Financial sentiment has become a crucial yet complex concept in finance, increasingly used in market forecasting and investment strategies. Despite its growing importance, there remains a need to define and understand what financial…
We investigate the financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize the individuals in a financial market by their trading strategy, namely noise traders and…
U.S. Federal Regulators receive over one million comment letters each year from businesses, interest groups, and members of the public, all advocating for changes to proposed regulations. These comments are believed to have wide-ranging…