相关论文: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Colla…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) monthly index is studied from 1825 till 2002 in order to identify the scaling ranges of its fluctuations upon different delay times and to find out whether or not it can be regarded as a Markov process.…

This text presents one of the first successful applications of a rare events method for the study of multistability in a turbulent flow without stochastic energy injection. The trajectories of collapse of turbulence in plane Couette flow,…

We derive discrete and continuous class of mathematical models that describe a progressive collapse in a fictional one-dimensional structure, where we consider plastic and elastic types of collisions. We examine static (collapse initiation…

Climate change communication is crucial to raising awareness and motivating action. In the context of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement, we argue that climate scientists should move away from point estimates and towards…

There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…

In part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the…

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a gigantic tropical weather system, is marked by eastward travel of cumulus cloud clusters over the Indo-Pacific region and often causes severe weather and climate events worldwide. The physics and…

Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year?…

We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…

This research introduces two efficient methods to estimate the collision risk of planned trajectories in autonomous driving under uncertain driving conditions. Deterministic collision checks of planned trajectories are often inaccurate or…

Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall in terms of location and time, well advance in time to take…

Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…

The oscillations of climatic parameters of North Atlantic Ocean play important role in various events in North America and Europe. Several climatic indices are associated with these oscillations. The long term Atlantic temperature anomalies…

This article deals with the investigation of the influence of topography and coastlines on the dynamics of the depth averaged Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), driven by wind and atmospheric pressure. This is achieved with the help of a…

We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that…

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last $\mathord{\sim}$11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest…

Large rotating machines, e.g., compressors, steam turbines, gas turbines, are critical equipment in many process industries such as energy, chemical, and power generation. Due to high rotating speed and tremendous momentum of the rotor, the…

During the last ice age several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events took place. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature anomalies.…