相关论文: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Colla…
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability known as the $\Upsilon$ indicator is used to gauge the stability and hence detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced 5-box model of the North-Atlantic Meridional…
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we…
Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice…
Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record…
Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury's orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the…
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…
This paper discusses a recently proposed scenario of a climate-induced Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean in the 11th century AD. It demonstrates that such a scenario cannot be maintained when confronted with proxy data from various…
Tropical cyclone activity was intermittent during the 2025 Atlantic season, with extended quiet periods. Cumulative activity was near-average relative to 1991-present, despite warm sea-surface temperatures and La Nina conditions. We compare…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…
Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General…
Several aspects influence corrosive processes in RC structures, such as environmental conditions, structural geometry, and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate…
The Martian obliquity cycle is predominately influenced by Solar and Jovian tidal forces. The present-day axial tilt of Mars (25 degrees) is predicted to cycle between 0 degrees and 60 degrees (Mischna & Richardson 2005) with excursions up…
Atmospheric blocking exerts a profound influence on mid-latitude circulation, yet its predictability remains elusive due to intrinsic non-linearities and sensitivity to initial-conditions. While blocking dynamics have been extensively…
The Global Overturning Circulation (GOC) is a key component of the climate system, transporting heat, carbon, and salt throughout the global ocean. Previous reduced-dimensional models have sought to represent this three-dimensional…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…