相关论文: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Colla…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the…
This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…
To test a hypothesized faster-than-global sea-level acceleration along the mid-Atlantic United States, I construct a Gaussian process model that decomposes tide gauge data into short-term variability and longer-term trends, and into…
It is known that global climate models (GCMs) have substantial biases in the surface freshwater flux which forces the ocean component of these models. Using numerical bifurcation analyses on a global ocean model, we study here the effect of…
A 30-year high-resolution Northwestern Atlantic Ocean Reanalysis (NAOR) is presented. NAOR spans from January 1993 to December 2022 with a 4 km horizontal resolution and 50 vertical layers. It provides enhanced resolution and expands the…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
The recent addition of orbit-spin coupling torques to atmospheric global circulation models has enabled successful years-in-advance forecasts of global and regional-scale dust storms on Mars. Here we explore the applicability of the…
Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation…
As tropical cyclones become more intense due to climate change, the rise of Al-based modelling provides a more affordable and accessible approach compared to traditional methods based on mathematical models. This work leverages generative…
The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…
Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations…
The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been…
Many state-of-the-art methods for safety assessment and motion planning for automated driving require estimation of the probability of collision (POC). To estimate the POC, a shape approximation of the colliding actors and probability…
Collapse and reverse to collapse explosion transition in self-gravitating systems are studied by molecular dynamics simulations. A microcanonical ensemble of point particles confined to a spherical box is considered; the particles interact…
In a recent publication [PRL {\bf 81}, 1142 (1998)] it was argued that a randomly forced particle which collides inelastically with a boundary can undergo inelastic collapse and come to rest in a finite time. Here we discuss the survival…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet…
Mitigation of climate change will highly rely on a carbon emission trajectory that achieves carbon neutrality by the 2050s. The ocean plays a critical role in modulating climate change by sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Relying on the…