Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms
Abstract
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10-50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1501.06377,
title = {Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms},
author = {Theodoros Economou and David B. Stephenson and Christopher A. T. Ferro},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1501.06377},
year = {2015}
}
Comments
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)