相关论文: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Colla…

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system having important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and completion. Here we define…

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…

An Arctic cyclone, Ex-Typhoon Halong, produced strong winds and devastating flooding in southwestern Alaska during 11-12 October 2025. This study examines the evolution of Halong after its transition into an extratropical cyclone through…

Understanding why students stopout will help in understanding how students learn in MOOCs. In this report, part of a 3 unit compendium, we describe how we build accurate predictive models of MOOC student stopout. We document a scalable,…

Polarization observations of tidal disruption events offer unique insights into the accretion processes around supermassive black holes. Here, we present optical polarization observations of the nearby event AT 2023clx, obtained using the…

Atomic clock technology is advancing rapidly, now reaching stabilities of $\Delta f/f \sim 10^{-18}$, which corresponds to resolving $1$ cm in equivalent geoid height over an integration timescale of about 7 hours. At this level of…

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast the drift of objects in near coastal ocean on a period of several weeks. The proposed approach consists in estimating the probability of events linked to the drift using Monte Carlo…

We have developed a 3-step criterion to decide if a comet coming from the Oort Cloud will disintegrate. If we apply this criterion to comet C/2013 US10 we find that the probability of disintegration is 92%. The Secular Light Curve of this…

This study presents a comprehensive climatological benchmarking of tropical cyclones (TCs) generated by AI-based global weather prediction models. Using all TC events from the North Atlantic and Western Pacific basins between 2020 and 2025,…

We construct a network from climate records of atmospheric temperature at surface level, at different geographical sites in the globe, using reanalysis data from years 1948-2010. We find that the network correlates with the North Atlantic…

The longitudinal distribution of solar active regions shows non-homogeneous spatial behaviour, which is often referred to as Active Longitude (AL). Evidence for a significant statistical relationships between the AL and the longitudinal…

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon's rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence…

Some initial investigations into various atmospheric phenomena and the influence of the solar cycle on weather have been made. Strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, which cause cold and dry winter weather in North West…

We test a dynamic ODE model of hierarchical asymmetry on a panel of 260 countries over 1960-2023, drawing on World Bank, Penn World Table, V-Dem and World Inequality Database sources. In cross-section the model holds partially: trade…

Arctic warming threatens over 100 billion in permafrost-dependent infrastructure across Northern territories, yet existing risk assessment frameworks lack spatiotemporal validation, uncertainty quantification, and operational…

We propose a learning-based, distributionally robust model predictive control approach towards the design of adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems. We model the preceding vehicle as an autonomous stochastic system, using a hybrid model with…

We develop a statistical analytical model that predicts the occurrence frequency distributions and parameter correlations of avalanches in nonlinear dissipative systems in the state of a slowly-driven self-organized criticality (SOC)…

Four sets of global average temperature anomalies, altered so that they refer to pre-industrial temperature levels (baseline), as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are analysed in this study. Expectation values…

Previous studies have identified an association between near-surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and weak stratospheric polar westerlies. Large regions in northern Asia, Europe and North America have been found to cool…