相关论文: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Colla…
The dynamics of Mars' obliquity are believed to be chaotic, and the historical ~3.5 Gyr (late-Hesperian onward) obliquity probability density function (PDF) is high uncertain and cannot be inferred from direct simulation alone. Obliquity is…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
The goal of the article is to explore what is the most probable type of simulation in which humanity lives (if any) and how this affects simulation termination risks. We firstly explore the question of what kind of simulation in which…
How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
The predictability of the atmosphere at short and long time scales, associated with the coupling to the ocean, is explored in a new version of the Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM), based on a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic…
In automated driving, crash mitigation is crucial to ensure passenger safety. Accurate avoidance requires precise knowledge of the object's position and orientation. However, sensor noise and occlusions often result in tracking and…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
We investigate a random--neighbours version of the two dimensional non-conserving earthquake model of Olami, Feder and Christensen [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 68}, 1244 (1992)]. We show both analytically and numerically that criticality can be…
The Argo project deploys thousands of floats throughout the world's oceans. Carried only by the current, these floats take measurements such as temperature and salinity at depths of up to two kilometers. These measurements are critical for…
We study the survival probability of moving relativistic unstable particles with definite momentum $\vec{p} \neq 0$. The amplitude of the survival probability of these particles is calculated using its integral representation. We found…
Recent simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) have suggested a crucial role of sea-ice processes in AMOC hysteresis behaviour under varying surface freshwater forcing. Here, we further investigate this issue…
Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced…
For generic mesoscopic systems like quantum dots or nanoparticles, we study the Anderson orthogonality catastrophe (AOC) and Fermi edge singularities in photoabsorption spectra in a series of two papers. In the present paper we focus on AOC…
We present a mesoscale elastoplastic model of creep in disordered materials which considers temperature-dependent stochastic activation of localized deformation events which are mutually coupled by internal stresses, leading to collective…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
This paper presents a stochastic, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that leverages short-term probabilistic forecasts for dispatching and rebalancing Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems (AMoD, i.e. fleets of self-driving vehicles).…
The global fraction of anthropogenically emitted carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) that stays in the atmosphere, the CO$_2$ airborne fraction, has been fluctuating around a constant value over the period 1959 to 2022. The consensus estimate of the…
It is a common belief that power-law distributed avalanches are inherently unpredictable. This idea affects phenomena as diverse as evolution, earthquakes, superconducting vortices, stock markets, etc; from atomic to social scales. It…