相关论文: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Colla…
Monitoring the dynamics of global land-ocean cover is fundamental for regulating the Earth's climate and sustaining terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, existing datasets and research often exhibit limitations in temporal resolution…
We present a novel quasi-Bayesian method to weight multiple dynamical models by their skill at capturing both potentially non-linear trends and first-order autocorrelated variability of the underlying process, and to make weighted…
The results of an analysis of changes in the characteristics of atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) in the Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) hemispheres using results of simulations with the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles of climate models are…
Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…
Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms. Thus, to increase flood…
My means of extensive Monte Carlo simulations the mean radius of gyration and the end-to-end distance are calculated for a single chain in a solvent over a broad range of volume fractions, pressures and temperatures. Our results indicate…
Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…
In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…
Understanding convective processes leading to severe weather hazards within Mediterranean cyclones is relevant for operational forecasters, insurance industry, and enhancing societal preparedness. In this work we examine the climatological…
Heat flow is an important constraint on planetary formation and evolution. It has been suggested that Martian obliquity cycles might cause periodic collapses in atmospheric pressure, leading to corresponding decreases in regolith thermal…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
Assessing the resilience of a road network is instrumental to improve existing infrastructures and design new ones. Here we apply the optimal path crack model (OPC) to investigate the mobility of road networks and propose a new proxy for…
Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal…
An attempt is made to estimate and forecast the trend of the global annual and monthly mean temperatures. The results of a conventional statistical analysis suggest that in the absence of unforeseeable events such as a sudden acceleration…
We propose a simple microscopic model for arching phenomena at bottlenecks. The dynamics of particles in front of a bottleneck is described by a one-dimensional stochastic cellular automaton on a semicircular geometry. The model reproduces…
This paper proposes a stabilising model predictive control (MPC) scheme with preview information of disturbance for nonlinear systems. The proposed MPC algorithm is able to not only reject disturbance by making use of disturbance preview…
The properties of mesoscale Lagrangian turbulence in the Adriatic Sea are studied from a drifter data set spanning 1990-1999, focusing on the role of inhomogeneity and nonstationarity. A preliminary study is performed on the dependence of…
Dealing with meteorological uncertainty poses a major challenge in air traffic management (ATM). Convective weather (commonly referred to as storms or thunderstorms) in particular represents a significant safety hazard that is responsible…
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…
We describe the results of object kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) simulations of the annealing of primary cascade damage in bulk tungsten using a comprehensive database of cascades obtained from molecular dynamics [1] as a function of primary…