相关论文: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Colla…

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…

Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…

Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…

The global ocean meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is central for ocean transport and climate variations. However, a comprehensive picture of its historical mean state and variability remains vague due to limitations in modelling…

There is a reasonable possibility that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is relevant to compute probabilities and pathways of noise-induced transitions between the stable…

The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…

A defining feature of the present-day global overturning circulation (GOC) is the absence of deep water formation in the Pacific, in contrast to the Atlantic. This asymmetry, associated with higher surface salinities in the North Atlantic,…

Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Southern Ocean is investigated using hydrographic observations combined with satellite observations of sea-surface height. A three-dimensional (spatial and vertical) estimate of the…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the…

In situ boundary arrays have been installed in the North Atlantic to measure the large-scale ocean circulation. Here, we use measurements at the western edge of the North Atlantic at $16^\circ$N and $26^\circ$N to investigate low-frequency…

Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…

A high-resolution wave climate projection for the northwestern Atlantic Ocean has been conducted to help assess possible regional impacts due to global climate change. The spectral wave model NOAA WAVEWATCH III is utilized with three…

One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…

Deployed machine learning models should be updated to take advantage of a larger sample size to improve performance, as more data is gathered over time. Unfortunately, even when model updates improve aggregate metrics such as accuracy, they…

Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…

The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…