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We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate…

统计力学 · 物理学 2018-03-28 Stephen Whitelam

Let $X_{t}$ and $Y_{t}$ be two Markov chains, on state spaces $\Omega \subset \hat{\Omega}$. In this paper, we discuss how to prove bounds on the spectrum of $X_{t}$ based on bounds on the spectrum of $Y_{t}$. This generalizes work of…

概率论 · 数学 2013-02-11 Aaron Smith

It is well known that the distributions of hitting times in Markov chains are quite irregular, unless the limit as time tends to infinity is considered. We show that nevertheless for a typical finite irreducible Markov chain and for…

概率论 · 数学 2012-01-11 Yuri Bakhtin , Leonid Bunimovich

An algorithm for estimating quasi-stationary distribution of finite state space Markov chains has been proven in a previous paper. Now this paper proves a similar algorithm that works for general state space Markov chains under very general…

概率论 · 数学 2015-03-04 Jose H. Blanchet , Peter Glynn , Shuheng Zheng

We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-28 Wei Zhang

We consider a Markov process $ X(t) $ on the nonnegative integers $E= S \cup \{0\}$, where $S=\{1,2,...\}$ is an irreducible class and 0 is an absorbing state. In this paper, we investigate conditions under which the quasi-stationary…

概率论 · 数学 2014-10-09 Hanjun Zhang , Pengwen Guo , Yixia Zhu

We give a closed form of the discrete-time evolution of a recombination transformation in population genetics. This decomposition allows to define a Markov chain in a natural way. We describe the geometric decay rate to the limit…

概率论 · 数学 2016-03-24 Servet Martinez

In this paper we consider Markov chains with transition rates that depend on a small parameter $\varepsilon$. Under a mild assumption on the asymptotics of these transition rates, we describe the behavior of the chain at various…

概率论 · 数学 2017-04-26 Mark Freidlin , Leonid Koralov

In this paper, we give quantitative bounds on the $f$-total variation distance from convergence of an Harris recurrent Markov chain on an arbitrary under drift and minorisation conditions implying ergodicity at a sub-geometric rate. These…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Philippe Soulier

The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

统计力学 · 物理学 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

We consider a continuous time Markov chain on a countable state space and prove a joint large deviation principle for the empirical measure and the empirical flow, which accounts for the total number of jumps between pairs of states. We…

概率论 · 数学 2015-01-19 Lorenzo Bertini , Alessandra Faggionato , Davide Gabrielli

An asymptotic model for extreme behavior of certain Markov chains is the "tail chain". Generally taking the form of a multiplicative random walk, it is useful in deriving extremal characteristics such as point process limits. We place this…

概率论 · 数学 2011-12-30 Sidney I. Resnick , David Zeber

In this article we provide new applications for exponential approximation using the framework of Pek\"oz and R\"ollin (in press), which is based on Stein's method. We give error bounds for the nearly critical Galton-Watson process…

概率论 · 数学 2013-06-13 E. Peköz , A. Röllin

We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

概率论 · 数学 2025-08-19 Nils Berglund

Markov chains are an important tool for modelling and evaluating systems in computer science, economics, biology and numerous other fields. Thus, approximating Markov chains is a useful tool for decreasing the computational effort needed…

概率论 · 数学 2025-07-16 Patrick Sonnentag

Classical distribution testing assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the distribution that is being tested. We initiate the study of Markov chain testing, assuming access to a single trajectory of a Markov Chain. In particular, we observe a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-12-05 Constantinos Daskalakis , Nishanth Dikkala , Nick Gravin

In this paper, we analyze the number of departures from an initially empty $M/M/\infty$ system in a finite time interval. We observe the system during an exponentially distributed period of time starting from the time origin. We then…

概率论 · 数学 2023-03-20 Fabrice Guillemin

We consider the exit event from a metastable state for the overdamped Langevin dynamics $dX_t = -\nabla f(X_t) dt + \sqrt{h} dB_t$. Using tools from semiclassical analysis, we prove that, starting from the quasi stationary distribution…

偏微分方程分析 · 数学 2019-01-17 Giacomo Di Gesù , Tony Lelièvre , Dorian Le Peutrec , Boris Nectoux

We characterize absorption-time distributions for birth-death Markov chains with an absorbing boundary. For "extinction-prone" chains (which drift on average toward the absorbing state) the asymptotic distribution is Gaussian, Gumbel, or…

统计力学 · 物理学 2022-06-08 David Hathcock , Steven H. Strogatz

In this paper we consider the statistics of repeated measurements on the output of a quantum Markov chain. We establish a large deviations result analogous to Sanov's theorem for the empirical measure associated to finite sequences of…

量子物理 · 物理学 2015-06-22 Merlijn van Horssen , Madalin Guta