相关论文: Hawkes Models And Their Applications

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Event history data from sports competitions have recently drawn increasing attention in sports analytics to generate data-driven strategies. Such data often exhibit self-excitation in the event occurrence and dependence within event…

We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By…

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…

This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…

The contagion dynamics can emerge in social networks when repeated activation is allowed. An interesting example of this phenomenon is retweet cascades where users allow to re-share content posted by other people with public accounts. To…

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…

Asynchronous events sequences are widely distributed in the natural world and human activities, such as earthquakes records, users activities in social media and so on. How to distill the information from these seemingly disorganized data…

We introduce, and formally establish, a variant of the Hawkes-fed birth-death process -- the delayed Hawkes birth-death process -- in which the conditional intensity does not increase at arrivals but at departures from the system. In a…

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

The rapid growth of social media has been witnessed during recent years as a result of the prevalence of the internet. This trend brings an increasing interest in simulating social media which can provide valuable insights to both academic…

It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the…

Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal…

Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…

Trade executions for major stocks come in bursts of activity, which can be partly attributed to the presence of self- and mutual excitations endogenous to the system. In this paper, we study transaction reports for five FTSE 100 stocks. We…