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Inspired from recent insights into the common ground of machine learning, optimization and decision-making, this paper proposes an easy-to-implement, but effective procedure to enhance both the quality of renewable energy forecasts and the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-01-17 Miguel Á. Muñoz , Juan M. Morales , Salvador Pineda

We introduce a general, simple, and computationally efficient framework for predicting day-ahead supply and demand merit-order curves, from which both point and probabilistic electricity price forecasts can be derived. We conduct a rigorous…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-01-12 Guillaume Koechlin , Filippo Bovera , Piercesare Secchi

Accurate load prediction is an effective way to reduce power system operation costs. Traditionally, the mean square error (MSE) is a common-used loss function to guide the training of an accurate load forecasting model. However, the MSE…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-07-06 Jialun Zhang , Yi Wang , Gabriela Hug

Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-20 Linian Wang , Jianghong Liu , Huibin Zhang , Leye Wang

This paper introduces a deep reinforcement learning (RL) framework for optimizing the operations of power plants pairing renewable energy with storage. The objective is to maximize revenue from energy markets while minimizing storage…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-16 Lucien Werner , Peeyush Kumar

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time…

We propose a new forward electricity market framework that admits heterogeneous market participants with second-order cone strategy sets, who accurately express the nonlinearities in their costs and constraints through conic bids, and a…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2022-12-20 Anubhav Ratha , Pierre Pinson , Hélène Le Cadre , Ana Virag , Jalal Kazempour

We build upon previous work out of UC Berkeley's energy, controls, and applications laboratory (eCal) that developed a model for price prediction of the energy day-ahead market (DAM) and a stochastic load scheduling for distributed energy…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2018-05-17 Bertrand Travacca , Greg Rybka , Kenji Shiraishi

We present a novel recurrent neural network architecture specifically designed for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, aimed at improving short-term decision-making and operational management in energy systems. Our combined forecasting…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-29 Souhir Ben Amor , Florian Ziel

This paper addresses the energy management of a grid-connected renewable generation plant coupled with a battery energy storage device in the capacity firming market, designed to promote renewable power generation facilities in small…

At present, electricity markets largely ignore the fact that renewable power producers impose significant externalities on non-renewable energy producers. This is because consumers are generally guaranteed electricity within certain load…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2016-11-28 Ashkan Zeinalzadeh , Indraneel Chakraborty , Vijay Gupta

Large-scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES) brings huge challenges to the power system. A cost-effective reserve deployment and uncertainty pricing mechanism are critical to deal with the uncertainty and variability of RES. To…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-12-16 Zongzheng Zhao , Yixin Liu , Li Guo , Linquan Bai , Chengshan Wang

One of the main challenges in the emerging smart grid is the integration of renewable energy resources (RER). The latter introduces both intermittency and uncertainty into the grid, both of which can affect the underlying energy market. An…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2012-01-18 Arman Kiani , Anuradha Annaswamy

Accurate and reliable energy forecasting is essential for power grid operators who strive to minimize extreme forecasting errors that pose significant operational challenges and incur high intra-day trading costs. Incorporating planning…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2026-05-13 Raffael Theiler , Leandro Von Krannichfeldt , Giovanni Sansavini , Michael F. Howland , Olga Fink

Short-term electricity markets are becoming more relevant due to less-predictable renewable energy sources, attracting considerable attention from the industry. The balancing market is the closest to real-time and the most volatile among…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-14 Ciaran O'Connor , Joseph Collins , Steven Prestwich , Andrea Visentin

The uncertainty in the power supply due to fluctuating Renewable Energy Sources (RES) has severe (financial and other) implications for energy market players. In this paper, we present a device-level Demand Response (DR) scheme that…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2018-05-03 Bijay Neupane , Torben Bach Pedersen , Bo Thiesson

Power grids are moving towards 100% renewable energy source bulk power grids, and the overall dynamics of power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-13 Milan Jain , Xueqing Sun , Sohom Datta , Abhishek Somani

Renewable power sources have low marginal pro-duction costs, but may result in high balancing costs due to the inherent production uncertainty. Current day-ahead markets elicit only point production profiles and neglect the degree of…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-04-06 Shobhit Singhal , Lesia Mitridati , Licio Romao

Regulators and utilities have been exploring hourly retail electricity pricing, with several existing programs providing day-ahead hourly pricing schedules. At the same time, customers are deploying distributed energy resources and smart…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-09-11 Phillippe K. Phanivong , Duncan S. Callaway

The imbalance costs incurred by a stochastic power producer due to forecast production errors have a significant impact on its total profit and therefore, such an impact needs to be taken into account when evaluating investment decisions.…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2014-02-20 Salvador Pineda , Juan Miguel Morales