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Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The…
Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…
Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node…
A class of multiple-timescale asymptotic solutions to the equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is presented for the case of high basic reproduction number, with the inverse of the latter employed as the expansion…
Initial hopes of quickly eradicating the COVID-19 pandemic proved futile, and the goal shifted to controlling the peak of the infection, so as to minimize the load on healthcare systems. To that end, public health authorities intervened…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
Traditional biomedical approaches treat diseases in isolation, but the importance of synergistic disease interactions is now recognized. As a first step we present and analyze a simple coinfection model for two diseases affecting…
We study a discrete Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of infectious disease on a homogeneous tree and the limit behavior of the model in the case when the tree vertex degree tends to infinity. We obtain the…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
The SIR pandemic model suffers from an unrealistic assumption: The rate of removal from the infectious class of individuals is assumed to be proportional to the number of infectious individuals. This means that a change in the rate of…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…
We consider time-continuous Markovian discrete-state dynamics on random networks of interacting agents and study the large population limit. The dynamics are projected onto low-dimensional collective variables given by the shares of each…
We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming…
We study a symmetric two-disease SIR co-infection model on networks in which co-infected individuals recover at a rate distinct from that of single infections. The model explicitly represents all co-infection states and features absorbing…
The metapopulation network model is effectively used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals mobility. Considering the time-varying nature of individual activity and the preferences for attractive destinations in…
Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
We investigate the role of global mixing in epidemic processes. We first construct a simplified model of the SIR epidemic using a realistic population distribution. Using this model, we examine possible mechanisms for destruction of spatial…