相关论文: Large population limit for a multilayer SIR model …

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…

For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…

Recently the A/H1N1-2009 virus pandemic appeared in Mexico and in other nations. We present a study of this pandemic in the Mexican case using the SIR model to describe epidemics. This model is one of the simplest models but it has been a…

A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…

Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to health and…

The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…

Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…

In this paper, we present a discrete-time networked SEIR model using population flow, its derivation, and assumptions under which this model is well defined. We identify properties of the system's equilibria, namely the healthy states. We…

We study dynamics of a variant of the SIR the model, where we assume that individuals respond differently to dynamics of the epidemic. Their heterogeneous response is modeled by the Preisach hysteresis operator. The degree of heterogeneity…

Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…

In this work, some new exact and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for the SIR epidemic model, which is formulated in terms of dimensionless variables and parameters. The susceptibles population (S) is in this way explicitly…

In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…

The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…

In this paper, we show how a dynamic population game can model the strategic interaction and migration decisions made by a large population of agents in response to epidemic prevalence. Specifically, we consider a modified…

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…

We determine limiting equations for large asymmetric `spin glass' networks. The initial conditions are not assumed to be independent of the disordered connectivity: one of the main motivations for this is that allows one to understand how…

In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…