相关论文: Duration of Transients in Outbreaks: When can Infe…
The size and shape of the region affected by an outbreak is relevant to understand the dynamics of a disease and help to organize future actions to mitigate similar events. A simple extension of the SIR model is considered, where agents…
We study the early stages of viral infection, and the distribution of times to obtain a persistent infection. The virus population proliferates by entering and reproducing inside a target cell until a sufficient number of new virus…
A transmission interval for an infectious disease is important to understand epidemic processes in complex networks. The transmission interval is defined as a time interval between one person's infection and their infection to another…
It has been known that epidemic outbreaks in the SIR model on networks are described by phase transitions. Despite the similarity with percolation transitions, whether an epidemic outbreak occurs or not cannot be predicted with probability…
We study the SIR epidemic model with infections carried by $k$ particles making independent random walks on a random regular graph. Here we assume $k\leq n^{\epsilon}$, where $n$ is the number of vertices in the random graph, and $\epsilon$…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
We propose an epidemic model SIPHERD in which three categories of infection carriers Symptomatic, Purely Asymptomatic, and Exposed are considered with different rates of transmission of infection that are taken dependent on the lockdown and…
Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterize…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
In this work we study a modified Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model in which the infection rate $\lambda$ decays exponentially with the number of reinfections $n$, saturating after $n=l$. We find a critical decaying rate…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration…
We used a spatially explicit agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission combined with spatially fine-grained COVID-19 observation data from Public Health Scotland to investigate the initial rise of the Omicron (BA.1) variant of concern.…
We study the dynamic evolution of COVID-19 cased by the Omicron variant via a fractional susceptible-exposedinfected-removed (SEIR) model. Preliminary data suggest that the symptoms of Omicron infection are not prominent and the…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
We study the SIR epidemiological model, with a variable contagion rate, applied to the evolution of COVID19 in Cuba. It is highlighted that an increase in the predictive character depends on understanding the dynamics for the temporal…
The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…
In this study, we develop the mathematical model to understand the coupling between the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases and the mobility dynamics through urban transportation systems. We first describe the mobility dynamics of the…