相关论文: Betting strategies with bounded splits

We consider games played on finite graphs, whose goal is to obtain a trace belonging to a given set of winning traces. We focus on those states from which Player 1 cannot force a win. We explore and compare several criteria for establishing…

We investigate the problem of gambling with uncertainty in outcome probabilities. Stochastic optimization models are proposed for optimal investing on events with mutually exclusive outcomes when probabilities are estimated using…

In this paper, we consider partial sums of martingale differences weighted by random variables drawn uniformly on the sphere, and globally independent of the martingale differences. Combining Lindeberg's method and a series of arguments due…

An infinite bit sequence is called recursively random if no computable strategy betting along the sequence has unbounded capital. It is well-known that the property of recursive randomness is closed under computable permutations. We…

TThe problem is to identify a probability associated with a set of natural numbers, given an infinite data sequence of elements from the set. If the given sequence is drawn i.i.d. and the probability mass function involved (the target)…

For a sequence of binary bets, the Kelly criterion provides a closed-form solution that maximizes the expected growth rate of wealth. In contrast, when multiple bets are placed simultaneously (e.g., in portfolio allocation or prediction…

We consider graph games of infinite duration with winning conditions in parameterized linear temporal logic, where the temporal operators are equipped with variables for time bounds. In model checking such specifications were introduced as…

A reformulation of the Kelly Criterion is presented. Let $\mathfrak{G}$ be a generic stochastic Bernoulli binary game with outcomes $\mathscr{Z}(I)\in\lbrace -1,1\rbrace$ of N trials for $I=1...N$. The binomial probabilities are…

We consider zero-sum stochastic games with perfect information and finitely many states and actions. The payoff is computed by a function which associates to each infinite sequence of states and actions a real number. We prove that if the…

We examine two types of binary betting markets, whose primary goal is for profit (such as sports gambling) or to gain information (such as prediction markets). We articulate the interplay between belief and price-setting to analyse both…

Kelly betting is a prescription for optimal resource allocation among a set of gambles which are typically repeated in an independent and identically distributed manner. In this setting, there is a large body of literature which includes…

We study almost sure separating and interpolating properties of random sequences in the polydisc and the unit ball. In the unit ball, we obtain the 0-1 Komolgorov law for a sequence to be interpolating almost surely for all the…

The game-theoretic version of Kolmogorov's strong law of large numbers says that Skeptic has a strategy forcing the statement of the law in a game of prediction involving Reality, Forecaster, and Skeptic. This note describes a simple…

Player ONE chooses a meager set and player TWO, a nowhere dense set per inning. They play $\omega$ many innings. ONE's consecutive choices must form a (weakly) increasing sequence. TWO wins if the union of the chosen nowhere dense sets…

Telg\'arsky's conjecture states that for each $k \in \mathbb N$, there is a topological space $X_k$ such that in the Banach-Mazur game on $X_k$, the player {\scriptsize NONEMPTY} has a winning $(k+1)$-tactic but no winning $k$-tactic. We…

That there exist two losing games that can be combined, either by random mixture or by nonrandom alternation, to form a winning game is known as Parrondo's paradox. We establish a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for…

Solomonoff's uncomputable universal prediction scheme $\xi$ allows to predict the next symbol $x_k$ of a sequence $x_1...x_{k-1}$ for any Turing computable, but otherwise unknown, probabilistic environment $\mu$. This scheme will be…

In asynchronous games, Melli{\`e}s proved that innocent strategies are positional: their behaviour only depends on the position, not the temporal order used to reach it. This insightful result shaped our understanding of the link between…

The construction of confidence intervals for the mean of a bounded random variable is a classical problem in statistics with numerous applications in machine learning and virtually all scientific fields. In particular, obtaining the…

Stochastic games are often used to model reactive processes. We consider the problem of synthesizing an optimal almost-sure winning strategy in a two-player (namely a system and its environment) turn-based stochastic game with both a…