相关论文: A measure-valued stochastic model for vector-borne…
We introduce a kinetic model that couples the movement of a population of individuals with the dynamics of a pathogen in the same population. We consider that transmission occurs when a susceptible and an infectious individual are…
Understanding the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is crucial for informed decision-making and resource allocation. A critical component of disease behavior is the velocity with which disease spreads, defined as the rate of…
We study a stochastic lattice predator-prey system by means of Monte Carlo simulations that do not impose any restrictions on the number of particles per site, and discuss the similarities and differences of our results with those obtained…
In this work, we investigate a theory of stochastic integration for operator-valued processes with respect to semimartingales taking values in the dual of a nuclear space. Our construction of this particular stochastic integral relies on…
We show the variational convergence of an irreversible Markov jump process describing a finite stochastic particle system to the solution of a countable infinite system of deterministic time-inhomogeneous quadratic differential equations…
A new class of integer-valued autoregressive models with dynamic survival probability is proposed. The peculiarity of this class of models lies on the specification of the survival probability through a stochastic recurrence equation. The…
In this paper we study a two-level branching model for virus populations under cell division. We assume that the cells are carrying virus populations which evolve as a branching particle system with competition, while the cells split…
This paper studies a novel approach for approximating the behavior of compartmental spreading processes. In contrast to prior work, the methods developed describe a dynamics which bound the exact moment dynamics, without explicitly…
We consider a spatial stochastic model for a pathogen population growing inside a host that attempts to eliminate the pathogens through its immune system. The pathogen population is divided into different types. A pathogen can either…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka--Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Assessing the practical identifiability of epidemic models is essential for determining whether parameters can be meaningfully estimated from observed data. Monte Carlo (MC) methods provide an accessible and intuitive framework; however,…
This work proposes and analyzes a family of spatially inhomogeneous epidemic models. This is our first effort to use stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) to model epidemic dynamics with spatial variations and environmental…
Momentum-space representation renders an interesting perspective to theory of large fluctuations in populations undergoing Markovian stochastic gain-loss processes. This representation is obtained when the master equation for the…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that…
The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…
We propose a stochastic lattice gas model to describe the dynamics of two animal species population, one being a predator and the other a prey. This model comprehends the mechanisms of the Lotka-Volterra model. Our analysis was performed by…
This study presents a new risk-averse multi-stage stochastic epidemics-ventilator-logistics compartmental model to address the resource allocation challenges of mitigating COVID-19. This epidemiological logistics model involves the…