相关论文: A new approach to Statistical analysis of election…

The last decade has witnessed an explosion on the computational power and a parallel increase of the access to large sets of data (the so called Big Data paradigm) which is enabling to develop brand new quantitative strategies underpinning…

Online data has the potential to transform how researchers and companies produce election forecasts. Social media surveys, online panels and even comments scraped from the internet can offer valuable insights into political preferences.…

We present novel methods for predicting the outcome of large elections. Our first algorithm uses a diffusion process to model the time uncertainty inherent in polls taken with substantial calendar time left to the election. Our second model…

In this paper, we propose a robust election simulation model and independently developed election anomaly detection algorithm that demonstrates the simulation's utility. The simulation generates artificial elections with similar properties…

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, that each citizen's vote should count equal. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large…

We propose new methods of electoral statistics. With their help, we study transcripts of vote counting in municipal elections. We construct and apply effective statistical tests to detect the ballot stuffing at the level of individual…

We propose an approach for testing the hypothesis that two realizations of the random variables in the form of histograms are taken from the same statistical population (i.e. that two histograms are drawn from the same distribution). The…

The reconstruction of the parameter of the model by the measurement of the random variable depending on this parameter is one of the main tasks of statistics. In the paper the notion of the statistically dual distributions is introduced.…

Voter fraud in the United States is rare and the vote-counting system is robust against tampering, but there remains widespread distrust in the security of election infrastructure among the public. We consider statistical means of detecting…

This paper proposed a methodology to forecast electoral outcomes using the result of the combination of a fundamental model and a model-based aggregation of polls. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical structure for the fundamental model that…

Most democratic countries use election methods to transform election results into whole numbers which usually give the number of seats in a legislative body the parties obtained. Which election method does this best can be specified by…

The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

Combining evidence from different sources can be achieved with Bayesian or Dempster-Shafer methods. The first requires an estimate of the priors and likelihoods while the second only needs an estimate of the posterior probabilities and…

In this paper we propose a novel method to forecast the result of elections using only official results of previous ones. It is based on the voter model with stubborn nodes and uses theoretical results developed in a previous work of ours.…

Counting votes is complex and error-prone. Several statistical methods have been developed to assess election accuracy by manually inspecting randomly selected physical ballots. Two 'principled' methods are risk-limiting audits (RLAs) and…

In this paper, we begin our discussion with some of the well-known methods available in the literature for the estimation of the parameters of a univariate/multivariate stable distribution. Based on the available methods, a new hybrid…

The margin of victory of an election is a useful measure to capture the robustness of an election outcome. It also plays a crucial role in determining the sample size of various algorithms in post election audit, polling etc. In this work,…

Matched case-control studies are commonly employed in epidemiological research for their convenience and efficiency. Analysis of secondary outcomes can yield valuable insights into biological pathways and help identify genetic variants of…

A new approach of obtaining stratified random samples from statistically dependent random variables is described. The proposed method can be used to obtain samples from the input space of a computer forward model in estimating expectations…

This paper considers elections in which voters choose one candidate each, independently according to known probability distributions. A candidate receiving a strict majority (absolute or relative, depending on the version) wins. After the…