相关论文: Evaluating distributional regression strategies fo…

A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…

Medical statistics reveal a significant dependence of hospitalized dengue patient on the patient's age. To incorporate an age-dependence into a mathematical model, we extend the classical ODE system of disease dynamics to a PDE system. The…

Network models are increasingly used to study infectious disease spread. Exponential Random Graph models have a history in this area, with scalable inference methods now available. An alternative approach uses mechanistic network models.…

Age estimation of unknown persons is a challenging pattern analysis task due to the lacking of training data and various aging mechanisms for different people. Label distribution learning-based methods usually make distribution assumptions…

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate…

Regularized regression models are well studied and, under appropriate conditions, offer fast and statistically interpretable results. However, large data in many applications are heterogeneous in the sense of harboring distributional…

The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…

We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…

We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…

In this paper, we develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure…

Contact networks are heterogeneous. People with similar characteristics are more likely to interact, a phenomenon called assortative mixing or homophily. While age-assortativity is well-established and social contact matrices for…

It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…

The COVID-19 pandemic and its multiple outbreaks have challenged governments around the world. Much of the epidemiological modeling was based on pre-pandemic contact information of the population, which changed drastically due to…

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are a group of pathogens infecting new hosts through sexual interactions. Due to its social and economic burden, multiple models have been proposed to study the spreading of pathogens. In parallel, in…

HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…

In this article, we discuss an age-structured SIR model in which disease not only spread through direct person to person contacts for e.g. infection due to surface contamination but it can also spread through indirect contacts. It is…

We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…