相关论文: Evaluating distributional regression strategies fo…

We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…

We study the critical properties of a model of information spreading based on the SIS epidemic model. Spreading rates decay with time, as ruled by two parameters, $\epsilon$ and $l$, that can be either constant or randomly distributed in…

In this paper, we introduce and study an age-structured epidemiological compartment model and its respective problem, applied but not limited to the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to investigate the role of the age of the individuals in the…

This paper is focused on the statistical analysis of data consisting of a collection of multiple series of probability measures that are indexed by distinct time instants and supported over a bounded interval of the real line. By modeling…

In this paper we study a diffusive age structured epidemic model with disease transmission between vector and host populations. The dynamics of the populations are described by reaction-diffusion equations, with infection age structure of…

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…

We investigate the problem of estimating the distribution of the individual reproduction number governing the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that this random variable follows a Negative Binomial distribution, we focus on…

Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…

Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…

The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so. This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and…

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected…

Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…

Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…

The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) continue to present a complex and costly challenge to public health programs. The preferences and social dynamics of a population can have a large impact on the course of an outbreak as well as the…

Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…