相关论文: Travel distance, frequency of return and the sprea…

We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…

Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…

Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…

The global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has followed complex pathways, largely attributed to the high virus infectivity, human travel patterns, and the implementation of multiple mitigation measures. The resulting geographic patterns…

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 spreading, the number of studies on the epidemic models increased dramatically. It is important for policymakers to know how the disease will spread and what are the effects of the policies and…

In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus…

Major interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large-scale lockdowns of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal…

With the logistic challenges faced by most countries for the production, distribution, and application of vaccines for the novel coronavirus disease~(COVID-19), social distancing~(SD) remains the most tangible approach to mitigate the…

The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…

Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is…

We focus on the modeling and simulation of an infectious disease spreading in a medium size population occupying a confined environment, such as an airport terminal, for short periods of time. Because of the size of the crowd and venue, we…

In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different…

COVID-19 has deeply affected daily life and travel behaviors. Understanding these changes is crucial, prompting an investigation into socio-demographic and socio-economic factors. This study used large-scale mobile device location data in…

Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…

In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They…

In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries.…

In this work we review recent works analyzing mobility data and its application in understanding the epidemic dynamics for the COVID-19 pandemic and more. We also discuss privacy-preserving solutions to analyze the mobility data in order to…

Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a…

The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…

OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…