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The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…

统计力学 · 物理学 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Hawkes point processes are first-order non-Markovian stochastic models of intermittent bursty dynamics with applications to physical, seismic, epidemic, biological, financial, and social systems. While accounting for positive feedback loops…

统计力学 · 物理学 2023-02-02 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…

量子物理 · 物理学 2026-04-08 Wai-Keong Mok

We study the continuous time limit of a self-exciting negative binomial process and discuss the critical properties of its intensity distribution. In this limit, the process transforms into a marked Hawkes process. The probability mass…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-24 Kotaro Sakuraba , Wataru Kurebayashi , Masato Hisakado , Shintaro Mori

Zipf's law is the most common statistical distribution displaying scaling behavior. Cities, populations or firms are just examples of this seemingly universal law. Although many different models have been proposed, no general theoretical…

统计力学 · 物理学 2010-07-05 Bernat Corominas Murtra , Ricard Solé

Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only…

概率论 · 数学 2021-01-12 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender

The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-07-30 Masatoshi Goda

We perform a quantitative analysis of extensive chess databases and show that the frequencies of opening moves are distributed according to a power-law with an exponent that increases linearly with the game depth, whereas the pooled…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2009-11-18 B. Blasius , R. Toenjes

The joint probability distribution of many degrees of freedom in biological systems, such as firing patterns in neural networks or antibody sequence composition in zebrafish, often follow Zipf's law, where a power law is observed on a…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2014-08-13 David J. Schwab , Ilya Nemenman , Pankaj Mehta

The rank-size plots of a large number of different physical and socio-economic systems are usually said to follow Zipf's law, but a unique framework for the comprehension of this ubiquitous scaling law is still lacking. Here we show that a…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-02-03 Giordano De Marzo , Andrea Gabrielli , Andrea Zaccaria , Luciano Pietronero

Power laws and distributions with heavy tails are common features of many experimentally studied complex systems, like the distribution of the sizes of earthquakes and solar flares, or the duration of neuronal avalanches in the brain.…

适应与自组织系统 · 物理学 2014-03-05 Dimitrije Markovic , Claudius Gros

[Takayasu et al., Phys. Rev.Lett. 79, 966 (1997)] revisited the question of stochastic processes with multiplicative noise, which have been studied in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-10-30 D. Sornette

When the probability of measuring a particular value of some quantity varies inversely as a power of that value, the quantity is said to follow a power law, also known variously as Zipf's law or the Pareto distribution. Power laws appear…

统计力学 · 物理学 2019-09-23 M. E. J. Newman

It is shown that the distribution of low variability periods in the activity of human heart rate typically follows a multi-scaling Zipf's law. The presence or failure of a power law, as well as the values of the scaling exponents, are…

医学物理 · 物理学 2007-05-23 J. Kalda , M. Sakki , M. Vainu , M. Laan

Understanding the innovation process, that is the underlying mechanisms through which novelties emerge, diffuse and trigger further novelties is undoubtedly of fundamental importance in many areas (biology, linguistics, social science and…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-10-29 Giacomo Aletti , Irene Crimaldi

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

概率论 · 数学 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We study the statistical properties of recurrence times in the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process, the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account how the past events influence the occurrence of future…

地球物理 · 物理学 2015-06-12 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

The dependence with text length of the statistical properties of word occurrences has long been considered a severe limitation quantitative linguistics. We propose a simple scaling form for the distribution of absolute word frequencies…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2015-06-15 Francesc Font-Clos , Gemma Boleda , Álvaro Corral

Power-law distributions with various exponents are studied. We first introduce a simple and generic model that reproduces Zipf's law. We can regard this model both as the time evolution of the population of cities and that of the asset…

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Kenji Kawamura , Naomichi Hatano

Stretched exponential probability density functions (pdf), having the form of the exponential of minus a fractional power of the argument, are commonly found in turbulence and other areas. They can arise because of an underlying random…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-10-30 U. Frisch , D. Sornette
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