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This paper proposes a novel capacity credit evaluation framework to accurately quantify the contribution of generalized energy storage (GES) to resource adequacy, considering both strategic capacity withholding and decision-dependent…

The use of machine learning algorithms to model user behavior and drive business decisions has become increasingly commonplace, specifically providing intelligent recommendations to automated decision making. This has led to an increase in…

This paper presents a model that studies the impact of credit expansions arising from increases in collateral values or lower interest rate policies on long-run productivity and economic growth in a two-sector endogenous growth economy,…

In this article, we introduce a random (directed) graph model for the simultaneous forwards and backwards description of a rather broad class of Cannings models with a seed bank mechanism. This provides a simple tool to establish a sampling…

Macroeconomic factors have a critical impact on banking credit risk, which cannot be directly controlled by banks, and therefore, there is a need for an early credit risk warning system based on the macroeconomy. By comparing different…

We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However,…

We consider a class of queries called durability prediction queries that arise commonly in predictive analytics, where we use a given predictive model to answer questions about possible futures to inform our decisions. Examples of…

Performative distribution shift captures the setting where the choice of which ML model is deployed changes the data distribution. For example, a bank which uses the number of open credit lines to determine a customer's risk of default on a…

E-grocery retailing enables ordering products online to be delivered at a future time slot chosen by the customer. This emerging field of business provides retailers with large and comprehensive new data sets, yet creates several challenges…

As deep generative models proliferate across the AI landscape, industrial practitioners still face critical yet unanswered questions about which deep generative models best suit complex manufacturing design tasks. This work addresses this…

In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling historical data on retail credit portfolio performance, with a view to forecasting future performance, and facilitating strategic decision making. We consider a situation, common in…

A planner allocates discrete transfers of size $D_g$ to $N$ heterogeneous groups labeled $g$ and has CES preferences over the resulting outcomes, $H_g(D_g)$. We derive a closed-form solution for optimally allocating a fixed budget subject…

This paper studies how shocks to global banks' net worth transmit to Emerging Market Economies. Using the identification strategy of Ottonello and Song (2022), which isolates high-frequency surprises to banks' credit supply capacity, we…

We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate…

As a key component of power system production simulation, load forecasting is critical for the stable operation of power systems. Machine learning methods prevail in this field. However, the limited training data can be a challenge. This…

We follow a long path for Credit Derivatives and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) in particular, from the introduction of the Gaussian copula model and the related implied correlations to the introduction of arbitrage-free dynamic…

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…

We consider a simple model of a closed economic system where the total money is conserved and the number of economic agents is fixed. In analogy to statistical systems in equilibrium, money and the average money per economic agent are…

In this article, we discuss the continuous version of the generalized exchange-driven growth model which is a variant of the coagulation model in which a smaller size particle is detached from a bigger one and merges with another particle.…

The 2008 economic crisis was not forecastable by at that time existing models of macroeconomics. Thus macroeconomics needs new tools. We introduce a model based on National Accounts that shows how macroeconomic sectors are interconnected.…