相关论文: Estimating functional parameters for understanding…

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…

Understanding the effects of interventions, such as restrictions on community and large group gatherings, is critical to controlling the spread of COVID-19. Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models are traditionally used to forecast…

In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model…

In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their…

A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and caused the world to enter a new reality, with many direct and indirect factors influencing it. Some are human-controllable (e.g. interventional policies, mobility and the…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…

The spread of COVID-19 has brought challenges to health, social and economic systems around the world. With little to no prior immunity in the global population transmission has been driven primarily by human interaction. However, as with…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important for organizations to evaluate the efficacy of interventions aiming at…

We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…

Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting…

The outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already created emergency situations in almost every country of the world. The disease spreads all…

In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in four countries of interest. In particular, the epidemic model, that depends on some basic characteristics,…

The outbreak of the new virus COVID-19, beyond the human health risks and loss, has caused also very serious problems in a wide range of human activities, including the basic and applied scientific research, mainly that concern world wide…

In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment…