相关论文: Lifting Lockdown Control Measure Assessment: From …

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…

We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…

In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…

Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…

As the COVID19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the essential weapons to combat the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on our…

Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…

COVID-19 is an acute respiratory disease that has been classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Characterization of this disease is still in its early stages. However, it is known to have high mortality rates, particularly…

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is caused by SARS-COV2 has become a pandemic. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting…

The COVID-19 pandemic has proved to be one of the most disruptive public health emergencies in recent memory. Among non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown measures are some of the most common tools employed by…

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…

Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…

Washing hands, social distancing and staying at home are the preventive measures set in place to contain the spread of the COVID-19, a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. These measures, although straightforward to follow, highlight the tip of an…

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…

We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…

OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…

Over a year after the start of the COVID-19 epidemics, we are still facing the virus and it is hard to correctly predict its future spread over weeks to come, as well as the impacts of potential political interventions. Current epidemic…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…