相关论文: Lifting Lockdown Control Measure Assessment: From …

We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…

Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…

We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…

We present a compartmental SEIAR model of epidemic spread as a generalization of the SEIR model. We believe that the asymptomatic infectious cohort is an omitted part of the understanding of the epidemic dynamics of disease COVID-19. We…

A study of changes in the transmission of a disease, in particular, a new disease like COVID-19, requires very flexible models which can capture, among others, the effects of non-pharmacological and pharmacological measures, changes in…

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast…

Since the start of the still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many modeling efforts to assess several issues of importance to public health. In this work, we review the theory behind some important mathematical models that have…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

Since the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in December 2019, studies have been addressing diverse aspects in relation to COVID-19 and Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC 202012/01) such as potential symptoms and predictive tools.…

The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…

The spread of COVID-19 has brought challenges to health, social and economic systems around the world. With little to no prior immunity in the global population transmission has been driven primarily by human interaction. However, as with…

To accurately predict the regional spread of Covid-19 infection, this study proposes a novel hybrid model which combines a Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network with dynamic behavioral models. Several factors and…

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous amount of deaths and a devastating impact on the economic development all over the world. Thus, it is paramount to control its further transmission, for which purpose it…

In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our lives and still poses a challenge to science. Numerous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic. In particular, inhalation of aerosolised pathogens has…

The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic has been announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Govt. of India has declared a nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020, to prevent community transmission of…

Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…

This research presents an advanced fractional-order compartmental model designed to delve into the complexities of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, specifically accounting for the influence of environmental pathogens on disease spread. By…

Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…