相关论文: Effect of diagnostic testing on the isolation rate…

We obtain conditions for eradication and permanence of infection for a nonautonomous SIQR model with time-dependent parameters, that are not assumed to be periodic. The incidence is given by functions of all compartments and the threshold…

In this project, identifiability, observability and uncertainty properties of the deterministic and Chain Binomial stochastic SIR, SEIR and SEIAR epidemiological models are studied. Techniques for modeling overdispersion are investigated…

This paper focuses on the analysis of a stochastic SAIRS-type epidemic model that explicitly incorporates the roles of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals in disease transmission dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers, often…

We study an SEIQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered) model for an infectious disease, with time delays for latency and an asymptomatic phase. For fast pandemics where nobody has prior immunity and everyone has immunity…

The extinction and persistence of infective individuals are closely related to the random change of the environment. In this paper, via the random/stochastic SIRS models, we analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact caused by the…

Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

With the prevalence of COVID-19, the modeling of epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, in particular the self-protection and migration, which have a…

We investigate how homophily in adherence to anti-epidemic measures affects the final size of epidemics in social networks. Using a modified SIR model, we divide agents into two behavioral groups-compliant and non-compliant-and introduce…

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…

Case isolation, that is, detection and isolation of infected individuals in order to prevent spread, is a strategy to curb infectious disease epidemics. Here, we study the efficiency of a case isolation strategy subject to time delays in…

The study of epidemic models plays an important role in mathematical epidemiology. There are many researches on epidemic models using ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations or stochastic differential equations. In…

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…

We consider an epidemic process on adaptive activity-driven temporal networks, with adaptive behaviour modelled as a change in activity and attractiveness due to infection. By using a mean-field approach, we derive an analytical estimate of…

To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a…

In this paper we consider the stability of a class of deterministic and stochastic SEIRS epidemic models with delay. Indeed, we assume that the transmission rate could be stochastic and the presence of a latency period of $r$ consecutive…

Changing environmental conditions can significantly affect the dynamics of disease spread. These changes may arise naturally or result from human interventions; in the latter case, lockdown measures that lead to abrupt but temporary…

Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…

Infectious disease transmission dynamics are particularly sensitive to social contact patterns, and the precautions people take to limit disease transmission. It depends on the age distribution of the community. Thus, knowing the…

The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…