相关论文: Tail of the distribution of fatalities in epidemic…

Cirillo and Taleb [Nature Phys. 16, 606-613 (2020)] study the size of major epidemics in human history in terms of the number of fatalities. Using the figures from 72 epidemics, from the plague of Athens (429 BC) to the COVID-19…

The total number of fatalities of an epidemic outbreak is a dramatic but extremely informative quantity. Knowledge of the statistics of this quantity allows the calculation of the mean total number of fatalities conditioned to the fact that…

We study the statistics of human deaths from wars, conflicts, similar man-made conflicts as well as natural disasters. The probability distribution of number of people killed in natural disasters as well as man made situations show power…

Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…

Heavy-tailed or power-law distributions are becoming increasingly common in biological literature. A wide range of biological data has been fitted to distributions with heavy tails. Many of these studies use simple fitting methods to find…

Just like the degrees of human and animal interaction networks, the distribution of the times between interactions is known to often be right-skewed and fat-tailed. Both these distributions affect epidemic dynamics strongly, but, as we show…

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers…

In order to account for large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster, we study a simple model by combining distributions of disaster and population/property with their spatial correlation. We assume fat-tailed or power-law…

Human activities can play a crucial role in the statistical properties of observables in many complex systems such as social, technological and economic systems. We demonstrate this by looking into the heavy-tailed distributions of…

The mutual fund industry manages about a quarter of the assets in the U.S. stock market and thus plays an important role in the U.S. economy. The question of how much control is concentrated in the hands of the largest players is best…

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…

(The third edition corrects minor typos and adds 3 chapters synthesized from published papers plus an appendix on maximum entropy distributions.) The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat…

Different questions related with analysis of extreme values and outliers arise frequently in practice. To exclude extremal observations and outliers is not a good decision because they contain important information about the observed…

Power-law distribution is one of the most important laws known in nature. Such a special universal behavior is known to occur in very few physical systems. In this Letter, we analyzed the mortality distribution of the Covid-19 pandemic…

It is demonstrated that World War II casualty data display statistical structure that would be expected from multifractal data. Given that the data displayed these properties, it is shown how the existence of power-law tails in the…

Many man-made and natural phenomena, including the intensity of earthquakes, population of cities and size of international wars, are believed to follow power-law distributions. The accurate identification of power-law patterns has…

I report a new statistical distribution formulated to confront the infamous, long-standing, computational/modeling challenge presented by highly skewed and/or leptokurtic ("fat- or heavy-tailed") data. The distribution is straightforward,…