相关论文: Optimal Lockdown for Pandemic Control

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…

We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…

The epidemiology of pandemics is classically viewed using geographical and political borders; however, these artificial divisions can result in a misunderstanding of the current epidemiological state within a given region. To improve upon…

The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…

We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…

In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…

During the Covid-19 pandemic a key role is played by vaccination to combat the virus. There are many possible policies for prioritizing vaccines, and different criteria for optimization: minimize death, time to herd immunity, functioning of…

We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…

This paper is based on the observation that, during Covid-19 epidemic, the choice of which individuals should be tested has an important impact on the effectiveness of selective confinement measures. This decision problem is closely related…

During its history, the ultimate goal of economics has been to develop similar frameworks for modeling economic behavior as invented in physics. This has not been successful, however, and current state of the process is the neoclassical…

In an emerging pandemic, policymakers need to make important decisions with limited information, for example choosing between a mitigation, suppression or elimination strategy. These strategies may require trade-offs to be made between the…

Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and…

Public transport is one of the most disrupted sectors of the COVID-19 pandemic with reported ridership drops up to 90% in majorly affected countries. As many government authorities strive to partially resume activities, public transport…

This paper considers a simple model where a social planner can influence the spread-intensity of an infection wave, and, consequently, also the economic activity and population health, through a single parameter. Population health is…

Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…

Mass public quarantining, colloquially known as a lock-down, is a non-pharmaceutical intervention to check spread of disease. This paper presents ESOP (Epidemiologically and Socio-economically Optimal Policies), a novel application of…

Currently there are many attempts around the world to use computers, smartphones, tablets and other electronic devices in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. Most of these attempts focus on collecting information about infected people, in…

The main focus of this chapter is on public health control strategies which are currently the main way to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. We introduce and compare compartmental models of increasing complexity for COVID-19 transmission to…

In this paper, we propose a two-group SIR epidemic model to simulate the outcome of stay-at-home policy and wearing face masks during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in the United States. Based on our proposed model, we further use the…

Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe…