相关论文: Virus spread versus contact tracing: two competing…

A significant proportion of the infections driving the current {SARS-CoV-2} pandemic are transmitted asymptomatically. Here we introduce and study a simple epidemic model with separate compartments comprising asymptomatic and symptomatic…

Many countries have passed their first COVID-19 epidemic peak. Traditional epidemiological models describe this as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions that pushed the growth rate below the recovery rate. In this new phase of the…

Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…

We focus on the modeling and simulation of an infectious disease spreading in a medium size population occupying a confined environment, such as an airport terminal, for short periods of time. Because of the size of the crowd and venue, we…

Coronavirus or COVID-19, which has been declared pandemic by the World Health Organization, has incurred huge losses to the lives of people throughout the world. Although, the scientists, researchers and doctors are working round the clock…

As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…

High impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. Testing, contact tracing and quarantining are critical in slowing down epidemic dynamics, but may prove insufficient for highly contagious…

The world is still fighting against COVID-19, which has been lasting for more than a year. Till date, it has been a greatest challenge to human beings in fighting against COVID-19 since, the pathogen SARS-COV-2 that causes COVID-19 has…

The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters…

Empirical evidence reveals that contagion processes often occur with competition of simple and complex contagion, meaning that while some agents follow simple contagion, others follow complex contagion. Simple contagion refers to spreading…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread rapidly across the world, leading to enormous amounts of human death and economic loss. Until definitive preventive or curative measures are developed, policies regarding testing,…

The control of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a considerable reduction of contacts mostly achieved by imposing movement control up to the level of enforced quarantine. This has lead to a collapse of substantial parts of the economy.…

Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…

The metapopulation framework is adopted in a wide array of disciplines to describe systems of well separated yet connected subpopulations. The subgroups or patches are often represented as nodes in a network whose links represent the…

We propose an epidemiological model that includes the mobility patterns of the individuals, in the spirit to those considered in (Barmak, 2011, 2016) and (Medus, 2011). We assume that people move around in a city of 120x120 blocks with 300…

Testing is a crucial control mechanism for an epidemic outbreak because it enables the health authority to detect and isolate the infected cases, thereby limiting the disease transmission to susceptible people, when no effective treatment…

We consider a stochastic epidemic model with sideward contact tracing. We assume that infection is driven by interactions within mixing events (gatherings of two or more individuals). Once an infective is diagnosed, each individual who was…

We formulate a compartmental model for the propagation of a respiratory disease in a patchy environment. The patches are connected through the mobility of individuals, and we assume that disease transmission and recovery are possible during…

A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…

Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…