相关论文: Volterra mortality model: Actuarial valuation and …

Empirical studies with publicly available life tables identify long-range dependence (LRD) in national mortality data. Although the longevity market is supposed to benchmark against the national force of mortality, insurers are more…

This paper investigates the time-consistent mean-variance reinsurance-investment (RI) problem faced by life insurers. Inspired by recent findings that mortality rates exhibit long-range dependence (LRD), we examine the effect of LRD on RI…

This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term annuities, away from classical no-arbitrage valuation towards valuation under the real world probability measure. Furthermore, we apply this valuation method to two examples…

To make medium- and long-term insurance products attractive, it is essential to enable participation in stock market returns. However, to eliminate downside risk, guarantees must be included, which naturally leads to the challenge of…

This paper investigates the valuation of variable annuity contracts with an early surrender option under non-Markovian models. Moreover, policyholders are provided with guaranteed minimum maturity and death benefits to protect against the…

A retention strategy based on an enlightened lapse model is a powerful profitabilitylever for a life insurer. Some machine learning models are excellent at predicting lapse,but from the insurer's perspective, predicting which policyholder…

This paper assesses the hedge effectiveness of an index-based longevity swap and a longevity cap. Although swaps are a natural instrument for hedging longevity risk, derivatives with non-linear pay-offs, such as longevity caps, also provide…

In life insurance, life tables are used to estimate the survival distribution of individuals from a given population. However, these tables only provide survival probabilities at integer ages but no information about the distribution of…

Risk prediction is central to both clinical medicine and public health. While many machine learning models have been developed to predict mortality, they are rarely applied in the clinical literature, where classification tasks typically…

In multi-state life insurance, an adequate balance between analytic tractability, computational efficiency, and statistical flexibility is of great importance. This might explain the popularity of Markov chain modelling, where matrix…

Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous applications amongst which we find stochastic mortality modelling, forecasting of death causes as well as profit and loss…

Recent studies have identified long-range dependence as a key feature in the dynamics of both mortality and interest rates. Building on this insight, we develop a novel bi-variate stochastic framework based on mixed fractional Brownian…

We propose the use of statistical emulators for the purpose of valuing mortality-linked contracts in stochastic mortality models. Such models typically require (nested) evaluation of expected values of nonlinear functionals of…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

Models to price long term loans in the securities lending business are developed. These longer horizon deals can be viewed as contracts with optionality embedded in them. This insight leads to the usage of established methods from…

This paper proposes a market consistent valuation framework for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit, death benefit and surrender benefit features. The setup is based on a hybrid model for the financial market and…

In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain development of…

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…