相关论文: COVID-19: What If Immunity Wanes?

Decline of immunity is a phenomenon characterized by immunocompromised host and plays a crucial role in the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) such as COVID-19. In this paper, we propose an age-structured model with…

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11th, 2020. With half of the world's countries in lockdown as of April due to this pandemic, monitoring and understanding the spread of the virus and infection…

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced changes in production and especially in human interaction, with "social distancing" a standard prescription for slowing transmission of the disease. This paper examines the economic effects of social…

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…

We consider the SEIRS compartment epidemiology model suitable for predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemy in the extreme limiting case of no acquired immunity. The disease-free and endemic fixed points are found and their stability…

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

We analyze the susceptible-infected-susceptible model for epidemic spreading in which a fraction of the individuals become immune by vaccination. This process is understood as a dilution by vaccination, which decreases the fraction of the…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, case isolation emerged as a key non-pharmaceutical intervention in pandemic response. Its effectiveness hinges on the timing of isolation, which is often dictated by the onset of contagiousness. While…

After the first lockdown in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, many countries faced difficulties in balancing infection control with economics. Due to limited prior knowledge, economists began researching this issue using cost-benefit…

Many infectious diseases are comprised of multiple strains with examples including Influenza, tuberculosis, and Dengue virus. The time evolution of such systems is linked to a complex landscape shaped by interactions between competing…

Social distancing is the primary policy prescription for combating the COVID-19 pandemic, and has been widely adopted in Europe and North America. We estimate the value of disease avoidance using an epidemiological model that projects the…

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics…

Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…

The infectious diseases are spreading due to human interactions enabled by various social networks. Therefore, when a new pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 causes an outbreak, the non-pharmaceutical isolation strategies (e.g., social distancing)…

Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types of control…

COVID-19 is a global epidemic. Till now, there is no remedy for this epidemic. However, isolation and social distancing are seemed to be effective preventive measures to control this pandemic. Therefore, in this paper, an optimization…

An interesting inference drawn by some Covid-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection -- even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of…

The development and authorization of COVID-19 vaccines has provided the clearest path forward to eliminate community spread hence end the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the limited pace at which the vaccine can be administered…

We analyse an extended SIRS epidemic model in which immunity at the individual level wanes gradually at exponential rate, but where the waning rate may differ between individuals, for instance as an effect of differences in immune systems.…

Social distancing as one of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions can help slow down the spread of diseases, like in the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective social distancing, unless enforced as drastic lockdowns and mandatory cordon…