相关论文: A SIR model on a refining spatial grid: Law of Lar…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
Recent work from public health experts suggests that incorporating human behavior is crucial in faithfully modeling an epidemic. We present a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation SIR-type population model for an epidemic…
Using demographic data of high spatial resolution for a region in the south of Europe, we study the population over fixed-size spatial cells. We find that, counterintuitively, the distribution of the number of inhabitants per cell increases…
We consider a stochastic SIS infection model for a population partitioned into $m$ households assuming random mixing. We solve the model in the limit $m \to \infty$ by using the self-consistent field method of statistical physics. We derive…
We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…
A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the…
We study a simple model of epidemics where an infected node transmits the infection to its neighbors independently with probability $p$. This is also known as the independent cascade or Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with fixed…
Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…
Networked SIR models have become essential workhorses in the modeling of epidemics, their inception, propagation and control. Here, and building on this venerable tradition, we report on the emergence of a remarkable self-organization of…
The stochastic SIRS model is a continuous-time Markov chain modelling the spread of infectious diseases with temporary immunity, in a homogeneously-mixing population of fixed size $N$. We study the scaling behaviour of the extinction time…
In this paper the concept of Critical Community Size (CCS) for the deterministic SIR model is introduced and its consequences for the disease dynamics are stressed. The disease can fade out after an outburst. Also the principle of…
We study supercritical spatial SIR epidemics on $\mathbb{Z}^2\times \{1,2,\ldots, N\}$, where each site in $\mathbb{Z}^2$ represents a village and $N$ stands for the village size. We establish several key asymptotic results as $N\to\infty$.…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behavior of some SIR models incorporating demography, bounded random transmission coefficient and a time-dependent vaccination strategy targeting the susceptible population. In this setting, we…
We consider the spread of infectious diseases through a Mean Field Game version of a SIR compartmental model with social structure, in which individuals are grouped by their age class and interact together in different settings. In our game…
We consider the effect of a nonvanishing fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds) on the SIR epidemic model on random networks. This is relevant when, for example, the number of arriving infected individuals is large, but also to the…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
We propose and solve exactly a model of a network that has both a tunable degree distribution and a tunable clustering coefficient. Among other things, our results indicate that increased clustering leads to a decrease in the size of the…
This study focuses on analyzing a deterministic SIR model governing the dynamics of the hosts and vectors on an urban network. Our analysis scrutinizes the typical existence--stability of the equilibria as well as the sensitivity of the…
We study epidemic processes with immunization on very large 1-dimensional lattices, where at least some of the infections are non-local, with rates decaying as power laws p(x) ~ x^{-sigma-1} for large distances x. When starting with a…