相关论文: Characterizing the spread of CoViD-19

We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…

COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…

A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…

The scope of this work is to serve as a guiding tool against subjective estimations on real pandemic situations (mainly due to the inability to acquire objective real data over whole populations). The previously introduced model of closed…

Mobile phone data have been widely used to model the spread of COVID-19, however, quantifying and comparing their predictive value across different settings is challenging. Their quality is affected by various factors and their relationship…

We introduce an epidemic spreading model on a network using concepts from percolation theory. The model is motivated by discussing the standard SIR model, with extensions to describe effects of lockdowns within a population. The underlying…

Understanding disease spread through data visualisation has concentrated on trends and maps. Whilst these are helpful, they neglect important multi-dimensional interactions between characteristics of communities. Using the Topological Data…

Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using…

The goal of this article is to analyze some compartmental models specially designed to model the spread of a disease whose transmission has the same features as COVID-19. The major contributions of this article are: (1) Rigorously find…

COVID-19 is not a universal killer. We study the spread of COVID-19 at the county level for the United States up until the 15$^{th}$ of August, 2020. We show that the prevalence of the disease and the death rate are correlated with the…

We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…

Social distancing and stay-at-home are among the few measures that are known to be effective in checking the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 in a given population. The patterns of dependency between such measures and their effects on…

Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…

We introduce a deterministic model that partitions the total population into the susceptible, infected, quarantined, and those traced after exposure, the recovered and the deceased. We hypothesize 'accessible population for transmission of…

Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…

Contact patterns play a key role in the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in human populations. During the COVID-19 pandemic the regular contact patterns of the population has been disrupted due to social distancing both imposed by…

The design of data-driven dashboards that inform municipalities on ongoing changes in infections within their community is addressed in this research. Daily reports of Covid-19 infections published by the state of Wisconsin as the initial…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…

This article explores mathematical models for understanding the evolution of contagious diseases. The most widely known set of models are the compartmental ones, which are based on a set of differential equations. But these are not the only…