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This paper develops a safety analysis method for stochastic systems that is sensitive to the possibility and severity of rare harmful outcomes. We define risk-sensitive safe sets as sub-level sets of the solution to a non-standard optimal…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-06-28 Margaret P. Chapman , Riccardo Bonalli , Kevin M. Smith , Insoon Yang , Marco Pavone , Claire J. Tomlin

We extend recently proposed design-based capture-recapture (CRC) methods for prevalence estimation among registry participants, in order to enhance treatment effect evaluation among a trial-eligible target population. The so-called ``anchor…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-28 Lin Ge , Yuzi Zhang , Lance A. Waller , Robert H. Lyles

Prediction of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients typically relies on black box models (that are unacceptable for use in hospitals) or hand-tuned interpretable models (that might lead to the loss in performance). We aim to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-09 Chloe Qinyu Zhu , Muhang Tian , Lesia Semenova , Jiachang Liu , Jack Xu , Joseph Scarpa , Cynthia Rudin

Background: Well-designed phase II trials must have acceptable error rates relative to a pre-specified success criterion, usually a statistically significant p-value. Such standard designs may not always suffice from a clinical perspective…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-02-10 Satrajit Roychoudhury , Nicolas Scheuer , Beat Neuenschwander

Many in-hospital mortality risk prediction scores dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. However, hard thresholding in these additive stepwise scores of the form "add x points if variable v is above/below…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-04-30 Natalia M. Arzeno , Karla A. Lawson , Sarah V. Duzinski , Haris Vikalo

Two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization (MR) has become a popular research design to estimate the causal effect of risk exposures. With the sample size of GWAS continuing to increase, it is now possible to utilize genetic…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-11-20 Qingyuan Zhao , Yang Chen , Jingshu Wang , Dylan S. Small

Robust estimators for linear regression require non-convex objective functions to shield against adverse affects of outliers. This non-convexity brings challenges, particularly when combined with penalization in high-dimensional settings.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-08-08 David Kepplinger , Siqi Wei

The rapid expansion of large-scale electronic health record (EHR) data offers unique opportunities to improve the accuracy and efficiency of clinical risk estimation. Yet, because clinical events may occur outside the recording health…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-11 Jie Zhou , Enhao Wang , Xuan Wang

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) on fragile populations frequently encounter complex attrition problems where the reasons for missing outcomes can be heterogeneous, with participants who are known alive, known to have died, or with unknown…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-06 Guangyu Tong , Chenxi Li , Eric Velazquez , Michael O. Harhay , Fan Li

Causal inference analyses often use existing observational data, which in many cases has some clustering of individuals. In this paper we discuss propensity score weighting methods in a multilevel setting where within clusters individuals…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-12-24 Youjin Lee , Trang Q. Nguyen , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Risk sensitive decision making finds important applications in current day use cases. Existing risk measures consider a single or finite collection of random variables, which do not account for the asymptotic behaviour of underlying…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2024-05-24 Shivam Patel , Vivek Borkar

The Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) is a popular method for evaluating the severity of vulnerabilities in vulnerability management. In the evaluation process, a numeric score between 0 and 10 is calculated, 10 being the most…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2024-05-09 Julia Wunder , Andreas Kurtz , Christian Eichenmüller , Freya Gassmann , Zinaida Benenson

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies that balance the expected reward and risk. In this paper, we present a novel risk-sensitive RL framework that employs an Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-05 Yu Chen , Yihan Du , Pihe Hu , Siwei Wang , Desheng Wu , Longbo Huang

Group number selection is a key problem for group panel data modeling. In this work, we develop a cross-validation (CV) method to tackle this problem. Specifically, we split the panel data into two data folds on the time span, with group…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-19 Zhe Li , Xuening Zhu , Changliang Zou

Background: The development of classification methods for personalized medicine is highly dependent on the identification of predictive genetic markers. In survival analysis it is often necessary to discriminate between influential and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-27 Thomas Welchowski , Verena Zuber , Matthias Schmid

Randomized clinical trials are often designed to assess whether a test treatment prolongs survival relative to a control treatment. Increased patient heterogeneity, while desirable for generalizability of results, can weaken the ability of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-30 Devan V. Mehrotra , Rachel Marceau West

There are multiple cluster randomised trial designs that vary in when the clusters cross between control and intervention states, when observations are made within clusters, and how many observations are made at that time point. Identifying…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-20 Samuel I. Watson , Alan Girling , Karla Hemming

In cluster-randomized crossover (CRXO) trials, groups of individuals are randomly assigned to two or more sequences of alternating treatments. Since clusters serve as their own control, the CRXO design is typically more statistically…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-30 Dane Isenberg , Michael O. Harhay , Andrew B. Forbes , Paul J. Young , Fan Li , Nandita Mitra

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) is a reliable indicator of online customers' preferences, making it crucial for developing recommender systems. A major challenge in predicting CVR is severe selection bias, arising from users' inherent…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-12-02 Wenbo Hu , Xin Sun , Qiang liu , Le Wu , Liang Wang

Cluster analysis requires many decisions: the clustering method and the implied reference model, the number of clusters and, often, several hyper-parameters and algorithms' tunings. In practice, one produces several partitions, and a final…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-08-14 Luca Coraggio , Pietro Coretto