相关论文: Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics in the Hos…

CoV2019 has evolved to be much more dangerous than CoV2003. Experiments suggest that structural rearrangements dramatically enhance CoV2019 activity. We identify a new first stage of infection which precedes structural rearrangements by…

Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across three scales: (1) pathogen evolution, often punctuated by the…

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…

Network scientists have proposed that infectious diseases involving person-to-person transmission may be effectively halted by targeting interventions at a minority of highly connected individuals. Can this strategy be effective in…

Mathematical modeling of biological systems is crucial to effectively and efficiently developing treatments for medical conditions that plague humanity. Often, systems of ordinary differential equations are a traditional tool used to…

This primer describes the statistical uncertainty in mechanistic models and provides R code to quantify it. We begin with an overview of mechanistic models for infectious disease, and then describe the sources of statistical uncertainty in…

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented many challenges that have spurred biotechnological research to address specific problems. Diagnostics is one area where biotechnology has been critical. Diagnostic tests play a vital role in managing a…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of…

Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has necessitated mitigation efforts around the world. We use only reported deaths in the two weeks after the first death to determine infection parameters, in order to make predictions of hidden variables such as the…

During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…

In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak changed the everyday life of almost all the people over the world.Currently, we are facing with the problem of containing the spread of the virus both using the more effective forced lockdown, which has the drawback…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

We propose a realistic model for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which takes into account the time-delay for recovery or death processes. The dynamic equations for the entire process…

As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected global health, driven by the remarkable transmissibility and mutational adaptability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Although five variants of concern, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron, have been…

The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infectivity is a major concern in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and economic reopening. However, rigorous determination of SARS-COV-2 infectivity is essentially…