相关论文: Spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreak…

In mathematical epidemiology, epidemic control often aims at driving the number of infected individuals to zero, asymptotically. However , during the transitory phase, the number of infected can peak at high values. In this paper, we…

Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…

Recent outbreaks of Ebola and Dengue viruses have again elevated the significance of the capability to quickly predict disease spread in an emergent situation. However, existing approaches usually rely heavily on the time-consuming census…

We analyze how temporal variability in local demography and dispersal combine to affect the rate of spread of an invading species. Our model combines state-structured local demography (specified by an integral or matrix projection model)…

Controlling diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and zika fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in mosquito populations which are their vectors, is presently quite a promising tool to reduce their…

We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…

The problems of selecting partial correlation and causality graphs for count data are considered. A parameter driven generalized linear model is used to describe the observed multivariate time series of counts. Partial correlation and…

Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…

The spatial dynamics of criminal activities has been recently studied through statistical physics methods; however, models and results have been focused on local scales (city level) and much less is known about these patterns at larger…

Dengue fever is a flu-like illness spread by the bite of an infected mosquito which is fast emerging as a major health problem. Timely and cost effective diagnosis using clinical and laboratory features would reduce the mortality rates…

The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…

Inter-city interactions are critical for the transmission of infectious diseases, yet their effects on the scaling of disease cases remain largely underexplored. Here, we use the commuting network as a proxy for inter-city interactions,…

The spread of viral pathogens is inherently a spatial process. While the temporal aspects of viral spread at the epidemiological level have been increasingly well characterized, the spatial aspects of viral spread are still understudied due…

This paper develops a large-scale Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression model for the purpose of investigating regional trends in antibody prevalence to Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease. The proposed model…

We analyse an epidemiological model of competing strains of pathogens and hence differences in transmission for first versus secondary infection due to interaction of the strains with previously aquired immunities, as has been described for…

Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several territories in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from South Florida to Brazil and the Caribbean is a highly connected…

Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…

We propose an SEIR model for the populations and an SEI model for the vector to describe the transmission dynamics of a four-strain model with both primary and secondary dengue infections. In order to accomplish this, we propose and obtain…

Physical contact or proximity is often a necessary condition for the spread of infectious diseases. Common destinations, typically referred to as hubs or points of interest, are arguably the most effective spots for the type of disease…

A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…