相关论文: Spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreak…
Arboviruses represent a significant threat to human, animal, and plant health worldwide. To elucidate transmission, anticipate their spread and efficiently control them, mechanistic modelling has proven its usefulness. However, most models…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
Infectious diseases usually originate from a specific location within a city. Due to the heterogenous distribution of population and public facilities, and the structural heterogeneity of human mobility network embedded in space, infectious…
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes…
It is preliminarily known that Aedes mosquitoes are very close to humans and their dwellings, also give rises to a broad spectrum of diseases: dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya. In this paper, we explore a multi-age-class model for mosquito…
Dengue fever is a virulent disease spreading over 100 tropical and subtropical countries in Africa, the Americas, and Asia. This arboviral disease affects around 400 million people globally, severely distressing the healthcare systems. The…
Dengue incidence forecasting using hybrid models has been surging in the data rich world. Hybridization of statistical time series forecasting models and machine learning models are explored for dengue forecasting with different degrees of…
In this paper we propose a Stochastic model for studying a spatial cholera epidemic spreading where communities (Humans and Bacteria) are spatially distributed on a one-dimensional lattice and the bacteria are transported along a network…
Dengue viral infections show unique infection patterns arising from its four serot- ypes, (DENV-1,2,3,4). Its effects range from simple fever in primary infections to potentially fatal secondary infections. We analytically and numerically…
We propose a model-based vulnerability index of the population from Uruguay to vector-borne diseases. We have available measurements of a set of variables in the census tract level of the 19 Departmental capitals of Uruguay. In particular,…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…
In 2015 the US federal government sponsored a dengue forecasting competition using historical case data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Competitors were evaluated on several aspects of out-of-sample forecasts including the…
Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…
Epidemiological early warning systems for dengue fever rely on up-to-date epidemiological data to forecast future incidence. However, epidemiological data typically requires time to be available, due to the application of time-consuming…
Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
The 2013 outbreak of Dengue in Fiji resulted in an alarming number of deaths and has been is a matter of serious concern. Dengue fever is a disease caused by the four types of the Dengue virus serotypes and transmitted mostly from mosquito…
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate…