相关论文: Model Uncertainty: A Reverse Approach

We propose two robust methods for testing hypotheses on unknown parameters of predictive regression models under heterogeneous and persistent volatility as well as endogenous, persistent and/or fat-tailed regressors and errors. The proposed…

We establish a quantitative version of the classical Halmos-Savage Theorem for convex, potentially non-dominated sets of probability measures and its dual counterpart, generalizing previous quantitative versions. These results are then used…

In financial applications, reinforcement learning (RL) agents are commonly trained on historical data, where their actions do not influence prices. However, during deployment, these agents trade in live markets where their own transactions…

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

We combine forward investment performance processes and ambiguity averse portfolio selection. We introduce the notion of robust forward criteria which addresses the issues of ambiguity in model specification and in preferences and…

In this paper, we deal with an axiomatic approach to default risk. We introduce the notion of a default risk measure, which generalizes the classical probability of default (PD), and allows to incorporate model risk in various forms. We…

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…

Prediction becomes more challenging with missing covariates. What method is chosen to handle missingness can greatly affect how models perform. In many real-world problems, the best prediction performance is achieved by models that can…

We propose an enhancement to wholesale electricity markets whereby the exposure of consumers to increasingly large and volatile consumer payments arising as a byproduct of volatile real-time net loads -- i.e., loads minus renewable outputs…

Distributionally robust control is a well-studied framework for optimal decision making under uncertainty, with the objective of minimizing an expected cost function over control actions, assuming the most adverse probability distribution…

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

The use of science for policy is at the core of a perfect storm generated by the insurgence of several concurrent crises: of science, of trust, of sustainability. The modern positivistic model of science for policy, known as evidence based…

Robust regression has attracted a great amount of attention in the literature recently, particularly for taking asymmetricity into account simultaneously and for high-dimensional analysis. However, the majority of research on the topics…

This paper studies the robust reinsurance and investment games for competitive insurers. Model uncertainty is characterized by a class of equivalent probability measures. Each insurer is concerned with relative performance under the…

The classical bias-variance trade-off predicts that bias decreases and variance increase with model complexity, leading to a U-shaped risk curve. Recent work calls this into question for neural networks and other over-parameterized models,…

We consider the problem of quantifying uncertainty over expected cumulative rewards in model-based reinforcement learning. In particular, we focus on characterizing the variance over values induced by a distribution over MDPs. Previous work…

We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local,…

In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We…

A classical result in risk measure theory states that every coherent risk measure has a dual representation as the supremum of certain expected value over a risk envelope. We study this topic in more detail. The related issues include: 1.…

The efficacy of robust optimization spans a variety of settings with uncertainties bounded in predetermined sets. In many applications, uncertainties are affected by decisions and cannot be modeled with current frameworks. This paper takes…