相关论文: Model Uncertainty: A Reverse Approach

In recent years, advanced model-based and data-driven control methods are unlocking the potential of complex robotics systems, and we can expect this trend to continue at an exponential rate in the near future. However, ensuring safety with…

This paper presents an integrated perspective on robustness in regression. Specifically, we examine the relationship between traditional outlier-resistant robust estimation and robust optimization, which focuses on parameter estimation…

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be…

When implementing prediction models for high-stakes real-world applications such as medicine, finance, and autonomous systems, quantifying prediction uncertainty is critical for effective risk management. Traditional approaches to…

We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex,…

High-dimensional data subject to heavy-tailed phenomena and heterogeneity are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and bring new challenges to the classical statistical methods. In this paper, we combine the asymmetric square…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

This research presents a comprehensive framework for transitioning financial diffusion models from the risk-neutral (RN) measure to the real-world (RW) measure, leveraging results from probability theory, specifically Girsanov's theorem.…

Model uncertainty is a crucial issue in statistics, econometrics and machine learning, yet its definition remains ambiguous and is subject to various interpretations in the literature. So far, there has not been a universally accepted…

Data Mining is a promising field and is applied in multiple domains for its predictive capabilities. Data in the real world cannot be readily used for data mining as it suffers from the problems of multidimensionality, unbalance and missing…

Managing a portfolio to a risk model can tilt the portfolio toward weaknesses of the model. As a result, the optimized portfolio acquires downside exposure to uncertainty in the model itself, what we call "second order risk." We propose a…

In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are…

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

Copositive linear Lyapunov functions are used along with dissipativity theory for stability analysis and control of uncertain linear positive systems. Unlike usual results on linear systems, linear supply-rates are employed here for…

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

In most cases, insurance contracts are linked to the financial markets, such as through interest rates or equity-linked insurance products. To motivate an evaluation rule in these hybrid markets, Artzner et al. (2022) introduced the notion…

This paper introduces a novel robust trading paradigm, called \textit{multi-double linear policies}, situated within a \textit{generalized} lattice market. Distinctively, our framework departs from most existing robust trading strategies,…

In this paper we propose a robust Model Predictive Control where a Gated Recurrent Unit network model is used to learn the input-output dynamic of the system under control. Robust satisfaction of input and output constraints and recursive…

In the early 1980s Halbert White inaugurated a "model-robust'' form of statistical inference based on the "sandwich estimator'' of standard error. This estimator is known to be "heteroskedasticity-consistent", but it is less well-known to…