相关论文: Model Uncertainty: A Reverse Approach

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

This paper is devoted to a study of robust fundamental theorems of asset pricing in discrete time and finite horizon settings. Uncertainty is modelled by a (possibly uncountable) family of price processes on the same probability space. Our…

This paper investigates a robust optimal consumption, investment, and reinsurance problem for an insurer with Epstein-Zin recursive preferences operating under model uncertainty. The insurer's surplus follows the diffusion approximation of…

Existing approaches to model uncertainty typically either compare models using a quantitative model selection criterion or evaluate posterior model probabilities having set a prior. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy which…

We introduce a novel uncertainty estimation for classification tasks for Bayesian convolutional neural networks with variational inference. By normalizing the output of a Softplus function in the final layer, we estimate aleatoric and…

Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. Modeling data uncertainty is essential for regression, especially in unconstrained settings. Traditionally the direct regression formulation is considered and the uncertainty is modeled by…

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set,…

The recent crash demonstrated (once again) that the description of the financial market by present financial mathematics cannot be considered as totally satisfactory. We remind that nowadays financial mathematics is heavily based on the use…

Model risk measures consequences of choosing a model in a class of possible alternatives. We find analytical and simulated bounds for payoff functions on classes of plausible alternatives of a given discrete model. We measure the impact of…

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…

Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the…

The availability of deep hedging has opened new horizons for solving hedging problems under a large variety of realistic market conditions. At the same time, any model - be it a traditional stochastic model or a market generator - is at…

This paper presents comparison results and establishes risk bounds for credit portfolios within classes of Bernoulli mixture models, assuming conditionally independent defaults that are stochastically increasing with a common risk factor.…

Considering mean-variance portfolio problems with uncertain model parameters, we contrast the classical absolute robust optimization approach with the relative robust approach based on a maximum regret function. Although the latter problems…

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Distributionally robust optimization is used to tackle decision making problems under uncertainty where the distribution of the uncertain data is ambiguous. Many ambiguity sets have been proposed for continuous uncertainty that build on…

This work will incorporate a few related tools for addressing the conceptual difficulties arising from sewing together classical and quantum mechanics: deterministic operators, weak measurements and post-selection. Weak Measurement, based…

We unify and establish equivalence between the pathwise and the quasi-sure approaches to robust modelling of financial markets in discrete time. In particular, we prove a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem,…

The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric…

Two-stage robust optimization is a fundamental paradigm for modeling and solving optimization problems with uncertain parameters. A now classical method within this paradigm is finite adaptability, introduced by Bertsimas and Caramanis…