相关论文: Model Uncertainty: A Reverse Approach

Robust model predictive control algorithms are essential for addressing unavoidable errors due to the uncertainty in predicting real-world systems. However, the formulation of such algorithms typically results in a trade-off between…

In meta-analysis, the random-effects models are standard tools to address between-study heterogeneity in evidence synthesis analyses. For the random-effects distribution models, the normal distribution model has been adopted in most…

Models necessarily capture only parts of a reality. Prediction models aim at capturing a future reality. In this paper we address the question of how the future is constructed (or: imagined) in an investment context where market…

In finite probability theory, events are subsets of the outcome set. Subsets can be represented by 1-dimensional column vectors. By extending the representation of events to two dimensional matrices, we can introduce "superposition events."…

Many current applications in data science need rich model classes to adequately represent the statistics that may be driving the observations. But rich model classes may be too complex to admit estimators that converge to the truth with…

Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate…

We examine a constrained Markov decision process under uncertain transition probabilities, with the uncertainty modeled as deviations from observed transition probabilities. We construct the uncertainty set associated with the deviations…

Probability measures by themselves, are known to be inappropriate for modeling the dynamics of plain belief and their excessively strong measurability constraints make them unsuitable for some representational tasks, e.g. in the context of…

While the traditional viewpoint in machine learning and statistics assumes training and testing samples come from the same population, practice belies this fiction. One strategy -- coming from robust statistics and optimization -- is thus…

Recent advances in reconstruction methods for inverse problems leverage powerful data-driven models, e.g., deep neural networks. These techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performances for several imaging tasks, but they often do…

Both classical and respectively quantum observables can be modeled as somewhat similar examples of random variables. In such a model the associated measurements preserve the values spectrum of an observable but change the corresponding…

In this paper, an optimization problem with uncertain constraint coefficients is considered. Possibility theory is used to model the uncertainty. Namely, a joint possibility distribution in constraint coefficient realizations, called…

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

It is becoming increasingly apparent that probabilistic approaches can overcome conservatism and computational complexity of the classical worst-case deterministic framework and may lead to designs that are actually safer. In this paper we…

This paper relates comparative belief structures and a general view of belief management in the setting of deductively closed logical representations of accepted beliefs. We show that the range of compatibility between the classical…

Prediction markets are often described as mechanisms that ``aggregate information'' into prices, yet the mapping from dispersed private information to observed market histories is typically noisy, endogenous, and shaped by heterogeneous and…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) form one of the most popular classes of models in statistics. The gamma variant is used, for instance, in actuarial science for the modelling of claim amounts in insurance. A flaw of GLMs is that they are…

Robust optimization has been established as a leading methodology to approach decision problems under uncertainty. To derive a robust optimization model, a central ingredient is to identify a suitable model for uncertainty, which is called…

Despite the success of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in many academic benchmarks for computer vision tasks, their application in the real-world is still facing fundamental challenges. One of these open problems is the inherent lack…

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…