相关论文: Epidemic Arrival Times; Theory, Discussion, and Li…

Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…

Disease spread in most biological populations requires the proximity of agents. In populations where the individuals have spatial mobility, the contact graph is generated by the "collision dynamics" of the agents, and thus the evolution of…

In this chapter, we focus on the problem of containing the spread of diseases taking place in both temporal and adaptive networks (i.e., networks whose structure `adapts' to the state of the disease). We specifically focus on the problem of…

Consider a graph where the sites are distributed in space according to a Poisson point process on $\mathbb R^n$. We study a population evolving on this network, with individuals jumping between sites with a rate which decreases…

Network properties govern the rate and extent of spreading processes on networks, from simple contagions to complex cascades. Recent advances have extended the study of spreading processes from static networks to temporal networks, where…

We analyze a recently proposed temporal centrality measure applied to an empirical network based on person-to-person contacts in an emergency department of a busy urban hospital. We show that temporal centrality identifies a distinct set of…

The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…

The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity…

With the popularity of portable wireless devices it is important to model and predict how information or contagions spread by natural human mobility -- for understanding the spreading of deadly infectious diseases and for improving delay…

A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…

We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…

Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher…

We introduce a new methodology to analyze the evolution of epidemic time series, which is based on the construction of epidemic networks. First, we translate the time series into ordinal patterns containing information about local…

Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…

The study of how diseases spread has greatly benefited from advances in network modeling. Recently, a class of networks known as multilayer graphs has been shown to describe more accurately many real systems, making it possible to address…

Empirical studies show that epidemiological models based on an epidemic's initial spread rate often fail to predict the true scale of that epidemic. Most epidemics with a rapid early rise die out before affecting a significant fraction of…

Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…

The goal of this work is to understand and quantify how a line with nonlocal diffusion given by an integral enhances a reaction-diffusion process occurring in the surrounding plane. This is part of a long term programme where we aim at…

We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…

Epidemics expose critical tensions between protecting public health and maintaining essential urban mobility. Public transport systems face this dilemma most acutely: they enable access to jobs, education, and services, yet also facilitate…