相关论文: Asymptomatic infectives and $R_0$ for COVID
There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
Accurate epidemic forecasting requires models that account for the layered and heterogeneous nature of real social interactions. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ calculated from models that assume homogeneous mixing or…
A well-known characteristic of pandemics such as COVID-19 is the high level of transmission heterogeneity in the infection spread: not all infected individuals spread the disease at the same rate and some individuals (superspreaders) are…
Considering the propagation characteristics of COVID-19 in different regions, the dynamics analysis and numerical demonstration of long-term and short-term models of COVID-19 are carried out, respectively. The long-term model is devoted to…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a continuously devastating public health and the world economy. One of the major challenges in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak is its asymptomatic infection and transmission, which are elusive and…
Branching processes are widely used to model evolutionary and population dynamics as well as the spread of infectious diseases. To characterize the dynamics of their growth or spread, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ has received…
Timely estimation of the current value for COVID-19 reproduction factor $R$ has become a key aim of efforts to inform management strategies. $R$ is an important metric used by policy-makers in setting mitigation levels and is also important…
This study assesses the impact of COVID-19 vaccines through an epidemiological model that quantifies their role in pandemic control. We analyze an SIR-based model incorporating vaccination effects and calculate the basic reproduction…
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different parts of the world differently: some regions are still in the rise of the first wave, other regions are now facing a decline after a first wave, and yet other regions have started to see a second…
In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
To control the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019, constant monitoring of the epidemic is required since, as of today, no vaccines or antiviral drugs against it are known. We provide daily updated estimates of the reproduction…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…
Testing symptomatic individuals for a disease can deliver treatment resources, if tests' results turn positive, which speeds up their treatment and might also decrease individuals' contacts to other ones. An imperfect test, however, might…
During an infectious disease outbreak, public health decision-makers require real-time monitoring of disease transmission to respond quickly and intelligently. In these settings, a key measure of transmission is the instantaneous…
Most countries are suffering severely from the ongoing covid-19 pandemic despite various levels of preventive measures. A common question is if and when a country or region will reach herd immunity $h$. The classical herd immunity level…
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges worldwide, necessitating effective modelling approaches to understand and control its transmission dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel approach that integrates…
A coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) model with quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed, then a novel analysis approach for finding the ultimate lower bound of COVID-19 infectious individuals is proposed, which means that…