相关论文: Importance sampling for a robust and efficient mul…

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…

This work introduces a novel multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) metamodeling approach for variance function estimation. Although devising an efficient experimental design for simulation metamodeling can be elusive, the MLMC-based approach…

Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) provides an elegant approach to find maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for latent variable models. However, MCML algorithms are computationally expensive when the latent variables are…

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Uncertainty propagation of large scale discrete supply chains can be prohibitive when a large number of events occur during the simulated period and discrete event simulations (DES) are costly. We present a time bucket method to approximate…

Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly used method for approximating expectations with respect to probability distributions. Uncertainty assessment for MCMC estimators is essential in practical applications. Moreover, for…

This work addresses uncertainty quantification of electromagnetic devices determined by the eddy current problem. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is used for the treatment of uncertain parameters while the devices are discretized…

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems are useful models for quantifying the uncertainty in several applications from the physical sciences and engineering, e.g., structural vibration analysis, the criticality of a nuclear reactor or photonic…

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been used for a wide variety of stochastic applications. In this paper we consider its use in situations in which input random variables can be replaced by similar approximate random variables…

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Multilevel sampling methods, such as multilevel and multifidelity Monte Carlo, multilevel stochastic collocation, or delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo, have become standard uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools for a wide class of…

Importance sampling (IS) is a technique that enables statistical estimation of output performance at multiple input distributions from a single nominal input distribution. IS is commonly used in Monte Carlo simulation for variance reduction…

Low-precision training has emerged as a promising low-cost technique to enhance the training efficiency of deep neural networks without sacrificing much accuracy. Its Bayesian counterpart can further provide uncertainty quantification and…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful but computationally expensive way of performing non-parametric Bayesian inference. MCMC proposals which utilise gradients, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), can better explore the…

In the first part of this paper we study approximations of trajectories of Piecewise Deter-ministic Processes (PDP) when the flow is not explicit by the thinning method. We also establish a strong error estimate for PDPs as well as a weak…

Recently-proposed particle MCMC methods provide a flexible way of performing Bayesian inference for parameters governing stochastic kinetic models defined as Markov (jump) processes (MJPs). Each iteration of the scheme requires an estimate…

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…