相关论文: Importance sampling for a robust and efficient mul…

In this paper we present a rigorous cost and error analysis of a multilevel estimator based on randomly shifted Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) lattice rules for lognormal diffusion problems. These problems are motivated by uncertainty…

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…

Existing multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (MLQMC) methods often rely on multiple independent randomizations of a low-discrepancy (LD) sequence to estimate statistical errors on each level. While this approach is standard, it can be less…

The Metropolis algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm used to simulate from parameter distributions of interest, such as generalized linear model parameters. The "Metropolis step" is a keystone concept that underlies…

Delayed-acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC) samples from a probability distribution via a two-stages version of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, by combining the target distribution with a "surrogate" (i.e. an approximate and…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

Importance sampling is a variance reduction technique for efficient estimation of rare-event probabilities by Monte Carlo. In standard importance sampling schemes, the system is simulated using an a priori fixed change of measure suggested…

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) produces a correlated sample for estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop so that we have good estimates of the desired quantities?…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

A grand canonical Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm is presented for studying the lattice gas model (LGM) of multiple protein sequence alignment, which coherently combines long-range interactions and variable-length insertions. MC simulations are…

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number $n$ of individual data points, also…

MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

In this paper we introduce an optimized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for solving the integer least-squares (ILS) problems, which include Maximum Likelihood (ML) detection in Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems. Two…

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Stochastic models for chemical reaction networks have become very popular in recent years. For such models, the estimation of parameter sensitivities is an important and challenging problem. Sensitivity values help in analyzing the network,…

We consider the generic problem of performing sequential Bayesian inference in a state-space model with observation process y, state process x and fixed parameter theta. An idealized approach would be to apply the iterated batch importance…

Inspired by the latest developments in multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods and randomised sketching for linear algebra problems we propose a MLMC estimator for real-time processing of matrix structured random data. Our algorithm is…