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Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-01-21 Luca Martino

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-21 Aaron Pim , Tristan Pryer

Modified Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (MHMC) methods combine the ideas behind two popular sampling approaches: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and importance sampling. As in the HMC case, the bulk of the computational cost of MHMC algorithms lies…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-03-28 Khoa T. Tran

Calculating averages with respect to multimodal probability distributions is often necessary in applications. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to this end, which are based on time averages along a realization of a Markov process…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-24 M. Chak , T. Lelièvre , G. Stoltz , U. Vaes

The presence of erratic or unstable paths in standard kinetic Monte Carlo simulations significantly undermines the accurate simulation and sampling of transition pathways. While typically reliable methods, such as the Gillespie algorithm,…

统计力学 · 物理学 2024-12-03 Elad Korngut , Ohad Vilk , Michael Assaf

We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-08-22 Yifan Hu , Jie Wang , Xin Chen , Niao He

Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo…

数值分析 · 数学 2022-04-12 Marcus J. Grote , Simon Michel , Fabio Nobile

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

Many problems require to approximate an expected value by some kind of Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, e.g. molecular dynamics (MD) or simulation of stochastic reaction models (also termed kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC)). Often, we are furthermore…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-02-18 Sandra Döpking , Sebastian Matera

While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…

数值分析 · 数学 2017-12-20 Ralf Kornhuber , Evgenia Youett

Improving efficiency of importance sampler is at the center of research in Monte Carlo methods. While adaptive approach is usually difficult within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, the counterpart in importance sampling can be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2007-12-11 Heng Lian

In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-11-05 Jiarui Du , Zhijian He

A common way to simulate the transport and spread of pollutants in the atmosphere is via stochastic Lagrangian dispersion models. Mathematically, these models describe turbulent transport processes with stochastic differential equations…

By facilitating the generation of samples from arbitrary probability distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is, arguably, \emph{the} tool for the evaluation of Bayesian inference problems that yield non-standard posterior…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-05-27 Peter L Green , Robert E Moore , Ryan J Jackson , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

In this work, we introduce a simple modification of the Monte Carlo algorithm, which we call step Monte Carlo (sMC). The sMC approach allows to simulate processes far from equilibrium and obtain information about the dynamic properties of…

其他凝聚态物理 · 物理学 2023-12-15 Dariusz Sztenkiel

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been applied successfully in a wide range of settings since its first introduction by Giles (2008). When using only two levels, the method can be viewed as a kind of control-variate approach to…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2024-05-07 Yu Li , Antony Ware

Sampling occupies an important position in theories of various scientific fields, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides the most common technique of sampling. In the progress of MCMC, a huge number of studies have aimed the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2021-07-20 Akihisa Ichiki , Masayuki Ohzeki

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach that exhibits favourable exploration properties in high-dimensional models such as neural networks. Unfortunately, HMC has limited use in large-data regimes and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-15 Adam D. Cobb , Brian Jalaian
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