相关论文: Asymptotic profiles of basic reproduction number f…
The basic and effective reproduction numbers are widely used metrics for characterizing the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. However, the interpretation of these numbers is based on the assumption of homogeneous mixing and may not…
This paper is concerned with a nonlocal dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with Dirichlet boundary condition, where the rates of disease transmission and recovery are assumed to be spatially heterogeneous. We…
In this paper, we study a reaction-diffusion vector-host epidemic model. We define the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and show that $R_0$ is a threshold parameter: if $R_0\le 1$ the disease free steady state is globally stable; if $R_0>1$…
This article is concerned with a nonlocal dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with Neumann boundary condition, where the rates of disease transmission and recovery are assumed to be spatially heterogeneous and…
This paper is devoted to the study of asymptotic behavior of the basic reproduction ratio for periodic reaction-diffusion systems in the case of small and large diffusion coefficients. We first establish the continuity of the basic…
An important issue in theoretical epidemiology is the epidemic threshold phenomenon, which specify the conditions for an epidemic to grow or die out. In standard (mean-field-like) compartmental models the concept of the basic reproductive…
The basic reproduction ratio is a crucial threshold parameter in infectious disease models. In nonlocal dispersal systems, its variational characterization is challenging due to the possible absence of a principal eigenvalue caused by…
This paper is devoted to the study of the asymptotic behavior of the principal eigenvalue and basic reproduction ratio associated with periodic population models in a patchy environment for small and large dispersal rates. We first deal…
We show we can control an epidemic reaction-diffusion on a directed, and heterogeneous, network by redirecting the flows, thanks to the optimisation of well-designed loss functions, in particular the basic reproduction number of the model.…
This paper deals with a simplified SIS model, which describes the transmission of the disease in time-periodic heterogeneous environment. To understand the impact of spatial heterogeneity of environment and small advection on the…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, reproduction numbers do not enable estimation and prediction in individual communities within networks, and they…
We show that the basic reproduction number of an SIS patch model with standard incidence is either strictly decreasing and strictly convex with respect to the diffusion coefficient of infected subpopulation if the patch reproduction numbers…
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the principal spectral theory and asymptotic behavior of the spectral bound for cooperative nonlocal dispersal systems, specifically focusing on the case where partial diffusion coefficients are…
Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
A key parameter in models for the spread of infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number $R_0$, which is the expected number of secondary cases a typical infected primary case infects during its infectious period in a large mostly…
Accurate epidemic forecasting requires models that account for the layered and heterogeneous nature of real social interactions. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ calculated from models that assume homogeneous mixing or…